Georgian paradoxes: the view from Tbilisi

Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The fourth president of Georgia was elected in the first round. The candidate from the ruling coalition Georgian Dream, Georgy Margvelashvili, gained about 2/3 of all votes. One of leaders of Mikhail Saakashvili’s party the United National Movement, David Bakradze – about 20%; the former speaker of the parliament Nino Burdzhanadze – about 10%.

The results of the elections mean that those who hoped for the second round as an important precedent on the path of establishing true democracy in Georgia have failed. The Georgian society appeared not to be ready for this. Premier Ivanishvili’s threat, as well as his candidate’s, to decline to participate in any second round played its role too. In this case the country would face uncertainty and the struggle which are so frightful for the Georgians who are sick of infinite crises. So, the threat was effective, and the majority of voters voted for Margvelashvili.

Second place for David Bakradze means that the party of the former president Mikhail Saakashvili managed to jump off the departing train of history. It can still claim to be the main opposition force in the country. Now it will be difficult to initiate a criminal case and arrest Saakashvili who has been recently elected the chairman of the UNM.

Nino Burdzhanadze’s failure appears to be so huge that her political future is very dim. What does her defeat mean for the future of Russian-Georgian relations? Some observers conclude that the Georgians who voted against Burdzhanadze show that they are against the normalization of relations with Russia. But what is the difference between Burdzhanadze’s pro-Russian position and the approach by Ivanishvili-Margvelashvili tandem in settlements of relations with Moscow?

Burdzhanadze has never mentioned the Eurasian Union or the Customs Union as an interesting project which deserves consideration. At the same time, Premier Ivanishvili stated ahead of the elections that the idea of uniting post-Soviet countries seemed interesting to him. Burdzhanadze constantly insisted on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the “peaceful reintegration” of the country, on a wide-scale dialogue with Russia, but she avoided the topic of NATO, stressing that Georgia “has no chance of joining the alliance, until Russian troops withdraw Abkhazia and South Ossetia.” And what if the troops are withdrawn? And the strangest thing is that Mrs. Burdzhanadze has never mentioned the necessity of a restoration of diplomatic relations with Russia.

Of course her rhetoric differs from confrontational statements by Saakashvili, but it doesn’t differ from Margvelashvili’s program. But why would a pro-Russian voter prefer the candidate from the ruling party? Georgy Margvelashvili has never made anti-Russian statements; he is against a new war with former autonomies and for peacemaking with Russia.

Let’s pay attention to an important peculiarity of the elections: for the first time in the Georgian history less than a half of voters took part in the elections. Voter turnout was very low, and everybody noted this. The majority of observers think it is connected with “unimportance” of the presidential position under the new constitutional model. But the population doesn’t see into models. An elected president remains the top official in eyes of common people. So, the passiveness of voters means that a half of the population ignored “the elections without an alternative” because the political elite hadn’t offered any real alternative to the main course of Georgian foreign policy of recent 20 years.

There are three main questions: who will be the prime minister after Bidzina Ivanishvili; will Georgian Dream manage to win the upcoming municipal elections in May as confidently; and what next for Saakashvili, who remains the brightest Georgian politician with a clear program? It seems the former president and his supporters don’t consider October 27th the end of their era. Saakashvili has stated that it’s just the beginning. However, many Georgians expect changes in relations with Russia. And the young president with blank political past has great opportunities for making important decisions.