When will sanctions against Iran be eliminated?

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Iran and the 5+1 international mediators (Russia, the U.S., the UK, France, China, and Germany) may sign a framework treaty this week, Reuters reports, citing the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Mohammad Javad Zarif. However, neither the minister nor experts are certain the deal will be signed.

According to the head of the Center of Studying Modern Iran, Radjab Safarov, “we see no significant, fundamental, radical changes in the aspect of sanctions against Iran. The Iranians discuss widely opportunities for escaping the situation. Almost all power branches are ready to normalize the situation, step to a normal level of cooperation with international society, so they could develop their economy and live calmly. At the moment the Iranian people begin to show mistrust toward the processes which happen over Iran. Many people ask: what has the West done, what steps have been made? We propose a lot of ideas, make promising and loyal offers which could dispel all negative views, complaints and doubts of the West, but the West doesn’t do anything, except pay compliments.”

At the same time, according to Safarov, “in recent times serious cooperation in the trading and economic sphere has been shown between Iran and Russia. It may lead to breakthroughs in key economic issues.” The expert is sure that the West is not interested in elimination of sanctions against Iran: “They realize that if sanctions will be eliminated or loosened, it will be green light for development of Iranian economy, for spreading Iranian influence in the region, for improvement of the Iranian political system, expansion of Iran.”

Meanwhile, the senior scientists of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS, Vladimir Sazhin, “it is a very difficult problem – both politically and technically. It is difficult to solve it in a couple of rounds – it is almost impossible. I think a road map can be developed, only if the talks last for several months. Our minister Lavrov proposed a very positive idea several years ago: the step-by-step plan. What does it mean? For example, Iran stops enrichment of uranium to 20%, one sanction is eliminated. Then, Iran makes one more step, the other sanction is eliminated. The difficulty is that each step should have its price, and it should be defined.”

The director of the Center of Socio-Political Studies, Vladimir Yevseyev, thinks that the Western countries are unlikley to agree with the proposed plan: “If Iran stops the enrichment of uranium, the West should make its own step. No, the West wants Iran to make the first step and give nothing for it to Tehran. What can be done? They could stop the work of uranium enrichment enterprises in Fordo and welcome the IAEA experts to the military facility in Parchin. And this should be perceived not as a concession by Iran. It is not about concessions, but about trust and a compromise. The West could make an adequate step as well. In this case we could take the situation out of the deadlock. If one of sides doesn’t understand this, there will be no progress in the talks. We are at the beginning of a very difficult path. The process with be very long. I wish all sanctions were eliminated against Iran; but Iran has to realize that they are expected not only what they have proposed. The process can take years.”