By Vestnik Kavkaza
Daily reports about murders in the North Caucasus, where terrorism and crimes remain the key problems, force experts to develop plans on normalization of the situation in the restless region. Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Konstantin Sivkov, told Vestnik Kavkaza about his views on the situation in the region.
“Speaking about the situation in the Caucasus, we must clearly understand that in the Caucasus the interests of a number of very serious players on the global and regional level, as well as local clans, have come together,” Sivkov stated and named the players and other factors of destabilization in the North Caucasus.
The first factor is global players interested in determining what will be the new world order. In the first place, in this case, the major players in the Caucasus among global players are the U.S. and the EU. The purpose of these players is simple - to gain a foothold in the region and to maximize their control over the region, to reach the resources of the Caspian Sea, to create a strategic military base for a possible strike on Iran, as well as an offensive on Central Asia, and in the future to go to China. Here's the geopolitical interest of these players. In order to solve the issue of consolidation in the region, they need to destabilize the North Caucasus and Russia. Georgia is controlled by them, Armenia is too small to be of interest, Kazakhstan is a large country, and destabilizing it is difficult, but the republics of the North Caucasus with their serious explosive potential, economic and political situation are a favorable area for the destabilization of the situation.
The second factor is the builders of the new global Islamic Caliphate led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These players, using Wahhabism as an ideological cover, face the challenge of expanding their domination in two main ways. To the west, these are the Middle East and North Africa, and the process is quite successful. And to the north, this is the direction of the North Caucasus and Iran. The issue of Iran is quite difficult, but the North Caucasus may be subject to disruption. Probably, in these acts they can get help from Turkey, which is also seeking to expand its geopolitical space. And in particular it is an occasion for the active participation of Turkey in the military conflict in Syria on the side of the opposition.
The third factor is the regional countries. Here there are no major centers seeking to destabilize the situation in the Caucasus. Turkey’s position is relatively neutral, without causing a major impact on terrorism in the North Caucasus. And other countries in the region are either neutral or friendly towards Russia, like Kazakhstan and Iran.
The fourth factor is the existing socio- political and economic situation in the North Caucasus. The enormous scale of corruption makes the giant funds allocated from the center, the federal government in the Caucasus simply dissipate into the personal fortunes of the local princes and feudal lords. Suffice it to recall the story of the recently-arrested mayor of Makhachkala. There is the lawlessness of the local law enforcement agencies, which in solving the problem of combating terrorism cross the line, which leads to the fact that these terrorists multiply to a greater extent than the agencies dealing with them.
The fifth factor is the economic situation that is conjugate to the lack of work in these regions, unemployment and the desire of local clans to fight for control. Local clans, trying to seize the initiative in dividing the federal pie, use violent methods of struggle. To do this, they use, of course, young people, who act against those members of the power clans who are in power. This explains the terrorist bursts in the region.
Speaking about threats to Russia, Sivkov noted: “The Russian army should be ready to face challenges as part of local wars. In order to conduct local wars one needs to create armies of up to a million or more. This is a well-known story. Let us recall "Desert Storm," the Vietnam War - these were local wars. Americans had groups of 700,000, 800,000, a million people. We also have to do it. We have a critical situation in the south, Afghanistan in the Central Asian strategic direction, unstable regimes in the Central Asian republics, in the former Soviet republics. We have a very complicated situation in the Caucasus, which will explode with incredible force if the war against Syria erupts. It is enough to think about what is going on in Dagestan and other republics. Japan has big claims on the territory of the four Kuril Islands, as well as on part of Sakhalin. This also should not be forgotten. These are issues that will require the creation of forces, rather significant ones.”
According to Sivkov, “in order to do that, we need not a contract-based but a conscript-based army. In order to deploy the necessary forces, we will have to double or triple the size of the peacetime armed forces. In order to do this, we will need at least 50% conscripts, to have the necessary mobile reserves. These are very simple things, known to any military people. As to the present-day situation, I can say in the high-tech branches of the armed forces, such as the submarine fleet, the regular fleet, the Strategic Missile Forces, aviation, the share of conscripts is very small. It is enough to say that there are 10-15%, at maximum 20% of conscript soldiers in a typical crew of a nuclear submarine. In the regular fleet, the percentage is a little higher, but it is also negligible. In aviation, even more so. In the infantry units, which will form the core of strike forces, there must be a significant proportion of conscripts in the military. And by the way I can say that the war of 2008 demonstrated that a conscript army is more able than a contract-based army when war is waged in such unexpected circumstances as there were, in the situation when the enemy has superior technological equipment.”
