Syria is waiting for a reversal on the battlefield

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The international world conference on Syria, which was planned for November, has been postponed again. The special envoy of the UN and the Arab League, Lahdar Brahimi, stated that the main obstacle for holding the summit in Geneva was disputes within the Syrian opposition on participation in the conference. Mediators may succeed in holding the conference by the end of the year, but Russian experts don’t believe that Geneva-2 can solve the key problems today.

Vladimir Yevseyev, the director of the Center of Socio-Political Studies, told Vestnik Kavkaza that “Geneva-2 will be an intermediate stage because, we can see a balance of forces on the battle field. You see tough battles near Damascus and in the suburbs of Damascus, which sometimes are not controlled by the authorities. And the situation has been going on for a long time. We can see problems in Aleppo and other Syrian provinces. Only when overbalance is reached on the battle field, a conference on settlement of the Syrian crisis can be held successfully. I hope such overbalance will take place by spring 2014, and an opportunity for holding a new conference will be real, for instance, Geneva-3.”

According to Yevseyev, the opposition doesn’t want the talks, nor does Bashar Assad: “Nobody is ready for forming a transitional government. What does it mean? Bashar Assad should leave, and it is a demand of the armed opposition. If the overbalance is in favor of the Syrian national army, the opposition will have no chance to set the demand, as it is actually ultimatum. At the moment ultimatum is set by the armed opposition under balance of forces. If it is defeated on the battle field, the government could agree with the opposition. For example, they could demand from the armed opposition to dismiss all contractors, as a preliminary condition for conducting the talks.”

Russia insists that Iran should take part in Geneva-2 – the main ally of Bashar Assad’s government in the world. Yevseyev believes that “it is better to hold the conference with Iran’s participation, but nevertheless, it has to be held without Iran as well. To hold with the opposition which will come to Geneva. And are result of the meeting should be a plan of future steps, settlement of humanitarian problems in Syria, problems of refugees. It is too early to discuss what future Syria will look like. Only after overbalance in battle forces, we can set a question on conducting early parliamentary elections. This step is a necessary condition for effective presidential elections. The elections which took place in May 2012, it seems nobody is satisfied with their results. By next spring or summer the situation will be more favorable for this, and then we will be able to speak about a settlement of the Syrian crisis.”

Andrey Baklanov, the aide of the vice-speaker of the Council of Federation, is sure that preparation for Geneva-2 can have two opposite scenarios: “The first scenario is to put the opposition at the table and make them negotiate. It is very difficult to do. The second scenario is to hold Geneva-2 as a conference for those who are ready to peaceful talks. I think the first direction is not really a good idea. We should consider the second variant, trying to gather those who are able to talk and discuss. Probably it will encourage the peacemaking process, set a pace, and other groups will perhaps join the talks later in the future. In politics, diplomacy, propaganda work we should focus on making all forces recognize their responsibility for the country. At the moment there is repetition in Syrian events.”

According to Baklanov, “President of Syria appeared to be more reasonable manager in the difficult conditions than many people had thought. If he continues settling household problems successfully, adapts to the situation, he won’t have to reject the presidential position. Can the Syrian events develop according to the Iraqi scenario when supporters of President shifted to the opposition’s side? Such a scenario is almost impossible for Syria because President’s environment and many powerful forces in the country understand that after overthrowing of the regime, they will have big troubles. So, they will fight devotedly.”