By Vestnik Kavkaza
Last week the defense minister of Russia, Sergey Shoygu, and the foreign minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, talked in Cairo about the export of arms and military equipment; the general cost is more than $2 billion, according to Vedomosti. Until 1977 the USSR was the main weapon exporter for the Egyptian army, but later the U.S. recaptured the initiative. However, when the Egyptian president Mohammed Mursi was overthrown this summer, Washington froze its military support. The question of the diversification of arms import became urgent for the Egyptian military.
Alexei Fesenko, senior scientist of the Institute of International Security Problems of the RAS, told Vestnik Kavkaza that “the Americans developed several scenarios of Egyptian developments in September. All of them are very unfavorable.
First – the military will try to suppress the rebel, they will fail and it will turn into a civil conflict.
Second – the military won’t suppress the Islamic opposition riots, and provinces will be steadily radicalized.
The most dangerous scenario is when Egypt will begin to fall in several enclaves, like Syria. We discuss problems of Syria a lot, but forget that actually Syria is not a united country anymore, for two years. There are several kingdoms which are being controlled by this or that political force. Egypt is under the same threat.”
Fesenko draws attention to the fact that “France and the UK touch on the question whether the Suez Cannel will be under a safe control. If radical destabilization takes place in Egypt, the French-British tandem can pose a question on an international control over the Suez Cannel. And it will be their historic revenge for 1956, the Suez Crisis. British Premier David Cameron said about the essence of the Libyan war on October 19th, 2011: “We came back to the Mediterranean Sea as a powerful country.” If they launch a regime of foreign control over Suez together with France, I think it will be a historic turn in the Mediterranean policy.”
Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities are trying to persuade Russia that the political processes in the country resume their natural course. Yahya Al Gamal, the former vice-premier of Egypt, stated that “building a democratic society, a civil society cannot be made in a single day; it is a long process. I recall examples in East Europe after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, when these countries began modernization. It was naïve to speak about a quick building of democracy. The process can last for a quarter of a century.
Egyptian liberal parties which have recently been founded haven’t firmed up yet. I am one of those who do their best to create civil parties. They should have contacts with people; and they shouldn’t grow apart. They should support each other, despite differences in views; they should develop in one direction, one course.”
“When Islamists came into office, it appeared that something was wrong, their plans failed. On June 30th the revolution took place, which demonstrated that people wanted real changes. The building of a democratic society began, and the process was irreversible. The Muslim Brotherhood poisoned people’s minds against them within 4-5 months,” Al Gamal thinks. “Political Islam has proved its inefficiency. Religion is an everlasting and absolute phenomenon, while politics means interests. Religion is based on absolute beliefs. Any religion – Islam, Christianity – is based on some inner belief. But politics, unlike religion, is based on changing interests.”
According to the former Egyptian MP, Mustafa Bakri, “the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islamic forces became partners of the U.S. The contacts were established long time ago. It was a dangerous tendency. But we realized that the United States wanted to turn Egypt into a region where anarchy would reign. Today we stand for an opportunity to build our own future in the multipolar world. We want our friends, including Russia, to support the Egyptian people.”
