Putin in Armenia: a view from Yerevan

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Yesterday's visit by Vladimir Putin to Armenia resembled an inspection of the Russian military base in Gyumri, rather than a state visit. Putin began with a visit to the base, even though previously Russian top leaders had never left Yerevan during their official visits to Armenia.

The Armenian experts saw a deep subtext in this – a demonstration of Russian influence and presence in the Caucasus to the South Caucasus countries, regional and non-regional states, and leading international power centers. Probably the visit to the base was a response to all processes which preceded the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius and a part of the geopolitical competition for influence in the post-Soviet space. “Russia has never planned to leave the Transcaucasia; we want to improve our positions in the Transcaucasia, relying of the best heritage from our ancestors and warm relations with all countries of the region, including Armenia,” Putin stated during the visit.

The second aspect of the Russian leader’s visit to Armenia was the question of Armenia joining the Customs Union. The fact that the Kremlin pays significant attention to the question is confirmed by the high level of participants of the third Armenian-Russian International Forum ‘Russia. Armenia. The Customs Union’ which was opened in Gyumri on December 2nd and continued its work in Yerevan on the next day.  President Putin mostly spoke about Armenia’s accession to the CU. At the same time, Putin noted that considered the question an independent choice of the Armenian people, and Russia would do its best to support the choice.

From this point of view, two important aspects should be distinguished: Serge Sargsyan’s statement on Armenia’s desire to join the CU and implementation of the idea. It is necessary to prepare, sign, and ratify a lot of documents within the process of joining the CU. The Armenian parliament has to adopt about 50 laws. Meanwhile, Armenia’s accession to the CU has no economic effect for Moscow. 40% foreign investments came to Armenia from Russia. The volume of Russian investments accumulated in the Armenian economy surpasses $3 billion today. In 2012 turnover between two countries was only $1.2 billion; Armenia’s share in Russian foreign turnover is 0.1%. The geopolitical component plays a leading role again, for example improvement of Russia’s south direction.

Putin’s visit, which was designed to show friendly and warm relations between the countries, was spoiled by protests against Armenia’s membership in the CU, in which several hundred people took part. The only parliamentary party which stands against Armenia’s accession to the CU is still Heritage.