By Vestnik Kavkaza
Ukraine didn’t sign the association agreement with the EU at the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership, stating that it was necessary to develop economic relations with Russia. Today, President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich will discuss the situation in the country with his predecessors who headed the country in the post-Soviet period – Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma, and Viktor Yushchenko. Director of the Institute of the Caspian Cooperation, Sergei Mikheyev, commented on the events which are taking place in Ukraine and what can be expected in the future for Vestnik Kavkaza, ahead of the meeting between Ukrainian presidents.
- What do you think about further developments in Ukraine?
- Calling the events “a revolution” is an exaggeration. There is no revolution, just like there was no revolution in 2004. Revolution is a change of the social and political system. There was no change of the social and political system in 2004; and it is not happening at the moment. Thus, the events are mostly “fake” and manipulations, even though many people sincerely believe that they protest against everything bad and for everything good. But it is human nature: they like to think that they are fighting for freedom. It is more pleasant to think that you are a fighter for freedom than to be a poor student who doesn’t want to study. Isn’t the difference obvious? One can justify his or her procrastination. Why not? I am fighting for freedom; I don’t want to work, to study, I am fighting for freedom. I think today we can see a decrease in opposition activity.
It seems it will continue reducing up to New Year; all of them are expecting “bloody massacres”, but they are not taking place. If the authorities freeze the situation and watch the Maidan, protecting their administrative buildings, the situation will fade away. A turning point could take place, if Yanukovych dismisses Azarov’s government. But it seems Yanukovych doesn’t want to sacrifice the government, even though he “appointed” Azarov to be the one to blame. Thus, Azarov seems to be guilty of everything, he initiated the whole undertaking, brought figures to the President, and the President had to reject signing the agreement. This is Yanukovych’s position.
At the same time, it is clear that Ukraine is a country of wonderful miracles; and everything is possible there. Moreover, a lot depends on the involvement of Western partners, who can put pressure on Ukraine and the opposition and move them to certain deeds, and so on. But I think that the fuse won’t stand it alone for a long time, i.e. if Yanukovych isn't overthrown, and he doesn’t want to resign, the fuse is doomed to fade away.
- So you don't think Ukraine will sign the association agreement with the EU?
- It can sign as many agreements as it wants. In fact Russia was ready for this. Russia simply declared its conditions. The intrigue over Ukraine is very simple. Ukraine and Europe got used to the fact that Russia pays for the pro-Western vector of the Ukrainian political elite. For example, in the 1990s and early 2000s we exported gas at our internal prices; we maintained a lot of preferential rates on our market for Ukrainian businesses and so on. And why has the mess begun now? This time Russia doesn’t want to pay for European integration. That’s why Europe is furious – it will have to pay for integration. The Ukrainian elite is confused, as it doesn’t want to pay for anything, while Europe doesn’t give money. They began to scream that mean Russia won’t allow Ukraine to be free. Russia had already agreed. “If you want to sign the agreement, please sign it! We don’t like it, but the choice is yours; but we won’t pay for it, don’t make us pay for it.”
So, our position remains the same, it hasn’t changed. Why did the Ukrainian authorities take a break? They realized that Russia wouldn’t pay for the things. Germany and other sponsors are furious for the same reason: they don’t want to pay on their own, and they thought Russia would pay for it. They say: “We will sign the agreement in March.” Do it! We won’t pay for you in March. If you sign it in May, you won’t see money as either, nor in June. That’s all.
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According to Sergei Mikheev, “Ukrainian citizens are destroying their own state. Time is working against the Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian state. Notwithstanding a fact who the next president is in Ukraine, the position of the Kremlin won’t change. If tomorrow Klichko or Yatsenyuk or Timoshenko becomes the president, they will face exactly the same position of Russia. The question is how Yanukovich plans to climb over the hole. He is confused over infinite multimove games, like Winnie-the-Pooh: “I go forward, no, backward, no, it is better forward, no, it’s better backward.” I think the situation is difficult for him. He demonstrated weakness. Can he agree on early elections? Probably, he can. I am not Yanukovich’s fan because I think that he and his team reduced the situation to the crisis. It seems that the authorities are weak and not able to control the situation. The events which are happening there will influence very negatively the Ukrainian statehood, and it doesn’t matter who wins.”
