By Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenia has a chance to become a member of the Customs Union (CU) by the beginning of 2015 , according to Deputy Economic Development Minister Alexei Likhachev. However, according to him, the road map did not fix a specific time frame, so it will be determined by negotiations and a regulatory framework, in particular, the ratification procedures of the relevant documents.
According to the president of the European Cooperation Development Foundation, Mher Simonyan, a public opinion poll conducted in Yerevan in early October showed that 86 % of respondents have a positive attitude to Armenia's accession to the CU, and only 6% feel negative about it. "The participation of Yerevan in the CU and in the forming Eurasian Economic Union will objectively help maintaining political and socio-economic stability in the country. Specific targeted assistance and investments in key sectors of the Armenian economy from partners - Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – are more relevant and urgent for Yerevan than the European Union's abstract promises of financing programs for the rehabilitation of the business climate and the attraction of foreign investments”, Simonyan said. “Russia is the largest investor in the Armenian economy. Total investment has amounted to $ 2.5 billion, 44 % of the total foreign investment. This year, Russia allocated loan to Armenia for the renovation and extension of the working lifespan of the Metsamor A-plant in Armenia, giving 30 % of all electricity to the country. And the European Union has repeatedly demanded to close the plant".
At the same time, according to Simonian, "Russia is ready to make use of the investment for the rehabilitation and modernization of the chemical plant in the south. Armenia will receive $100 million for the construction of strategic transport corridor "North – South". "Russian Railways" to invest more than $500 million in the modernization of the Armenian railway and the construction of Armenia - Iran highway. The Russian businesses in Armenia operate efficiently, pay taxes to the budget, provide jobs for tens of thousands of people. Moreover, an application to join the Customs Union has led to lower prices for Russian gas and for Russian nuclear fuel".
Simonian urges not to forget that "the main market of Armenian goods is in Russia and not in Europe. 95% of wine production goes to the Russian Federation. The trade turnover between the two countries last year has increased by 22 % and amounted to $ 1.2 billion. The Armenian export to Russia in January - August 2013 has already reached 820 million dollars. The removal of fees for access to the market of the CU dramatically increased the volume of Armenian exports. "
Agassi Arabyan, president of NGO "Javakhk Diaspora of Russia", also likes the Customs Union: “The negative development in the major Western countries compel the Eurasian countries, including Armenia, to think about how to ensure more stable life”.
According to him, one of the bonuses from the CU is unfettered access to the Russian market: “Now Armenia has problems with movement, in particular, because of the Georgians. That is not forever, now the power there is changed, and it is hoped that everything could calm down. The membership in the Eurasian Union will eliminate the difficulties that may arise about increasing exports to Armenia. Moreover, the Eurasian Union is a unified space of labour force , and entry into this structure is beneficial for Armenia, since it will reduce the flow of migrant workers a certain number of times”.
Speaking about migration, Arabyan said: “The Armenians can start creating their businesses in Russia and Armenia. This means that there is no need to look for ways of seeking to obtain the citizenship of other countries and to find accommodation elsewhere”.
In Arabyan’s opinion, one cannot ignore the factor of energy, on which Armenia fully depends today. It is obvious to everyone. “For the countries in the Eurasian Union, Russia will sell, of course, energy at domestic prices, as it has promised. There is, you all know already, such a proposal, it is very welcome, and we are happy. Also, through the Eurasian Union, Armenia can lobby for its interests. Armenia’s joining the CU will once again strengthen the position of Armenia in the sense that it can be really useful to neighboring Georgia and as a mediator in all matters that are now acute for Russia and Georgia, that is, in Russian-Georgian relations. We believe that Armenia is also interested in the establishment of relations between Georgia and Russia, because, apart from the transport dependence, there is still interest of the Armenian population. Accordingly, we support this decision, and there are high hopes that soon the Georgian authorities also think about getting into the CU, because there will be, as it would have been a little earlier expressed, the full support for stability in the region and large economic support for two neighbors and brotherly countries”.