By Vestnik Kavkaza
On New Year's Eve the Armenian newspaper "New Era" published the opinion of the analyst, Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan on the political outcome of the year of 2013 for the country and the forecasts for the coming year.
Speaking about the domestic political situation, Iskandaryan noted that the challenges for the region are mostly from the outside, and the situation inside is relatively stable. According to him, in 2014 there will be some break-outs in Armenia, perhaps even dangerous ones, but nothing serious will happen. The outgoing year, in his estimation, was important in terms of a series of elections which resulted in the fact that the political configuration became clearer. The republicans took almost all the political platforms. Meanwhile, there is no serious opposition in the country today, there are only some street protests by the politically-active part of society. These protests cannot replace a classical political opposition. If any political party wants to come to power, or to participate in it, it must use the people's discontent existing today, but today there is no such political force in the country, and if such a power does not appear, the public dissatisfaction may last many years. "A serious political force”, the political analyst says, “is a force that can bring to the street not three thousand people but, for example, half a million. The question is whether today half a million people in Armenia can believe any political force that did not simply participate in the presidential race and did not present itself seriously in the parliamentary elections".
Regarding foreign policy issues, Iskandaryan is sure that if Armenia could not initial the treaty establishing a comprehensive and deep free trade area with the EU, it does not mean that the country cannot try to build European management and democratic development mechanisms. In this regard, cooperation with the EU may well continue to finance the reforms, as the work with Europe in terms of promotion and implementation of reforms started before the program "Eastern Partnership" was launched.
As for the prospects of Armenia's accession to the Customs Union , in this matter Iskandaryan has his own point of view different from many experts. "I'm not at all sure”, the political scientist said, “that the CU will still exist in 5-6 years. I am also absolutely not sure that if it exists, Armenia will be its member. And I'm not at all sure that if Armenia is a member of the Customs Union formally, it will be there in fact, too”.
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New Year's gifts were received by 225 Azerbaijani IDP families from the occupied territories, who lived until recently in the "Finnish style" cabins built for them in the Imishli region. "Xalq Qazeti" reported that a new settlement for 550 families, built in accordance with the approved state program to improve the living conditions of refugees and internally-displaced persons and to increase their employment, is located on an area of 100 hectares. A beautiful school building for 360 places, a kindergarten for 50 places, an office building, a club, a community center, a medical and obstetric point are at the use of internally-displaced people in the village now; the communications of Imishli are connected to the electric grid and gas pipes. The village has a boiler room, a park, a pond and a hidden irrigation system for watering shared lands and gardens, along with a drainage network for the protection of groundwater.
According to the State Committee on Refugees and IDPs , the opening ceremony of the village, in which at the first stage houses for 325 families were built, was held in November last year. A few days ago, when at the second stage houses for 225 families were erected, this completed the relocation of internally-displaced persons located in the territory of Imishli region to new housing, the publication reports.
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Azerbaijan has its own illegal migrants. The “Mirror” newspaper, referring to the head of the Center for Migration Alovsat Aliyev, informs that currently in the country there are more than 30,000 undocumented migrants, and their number is growing. Mostly they come from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and the Philippines. In addition, with its economic development Azerbaijan is becoming a point for illegal transit migration.
The reason for this, according to Aliyev, is a complication in the procedure for obtaining immigration status.
After the adoption of the Migration Code of Azerbaijan, foreigners, except for representatives of diplomatic missions in Azerbaijan, can come only as tourists and receive a residence permit. Then the visitor must obtain a temporary residence permit to stay in place for a year, and only then he can get the status of an immigrant. Nevertheless, some measures were undertaken to improve the situation of migrants in Azerbaijan. For example, the duty on registration at the place of stay was abolished, and migrants who marry citizens of Azerbaijan shall be exempt from obtaining employment licenses.
The newspaper notes that the greater economic development of Baku and the Absheron peninsula is the cause of active internal migration. In Baku, the average monthly salary is twice the average in the regions. This difference in wages leads to labor migration to the capital and its surroundings. Thus, currently 45% of the total employed population, or approximately 2 million people, work in Baku and its suburbs.
The large number of emigrants remains a problem, too. According to government statistics and the United Nations, presented in this article, about 1.4 million Azerbaijani citizens have emigrated from the country. In search of work and a better life, about 82% of emigrants move to the CIS countries, including 61% going to Russia. The share of the EU countries accounts for 2.5 % of migrants, Israel - 2.4%, Turkey - 1.3%.
The publication cites the opinion of experts, according to which the opening of a larger amount of production capacity in the regions of Azerbaijan could reduce to some extent the unemployment rate among young people, who, in search of work, leave their places of residence. In addition, the development of small and medium-sized businesses could contribute to a decrease in migration; small and medium-sized businesses are now largely in the hands of oligarchs and private monopolies.
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"Republic of Abkhazia" reports that between the Government of the Republic and the Russian company "Independent Oil and Gas Company" an agreement on cooperation in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons was signed. The process begins with a revision of wells remaining from previous geo-electromagnetic exploration carried out in the 1970-1980 's, when oil in Abkhazia was explored at thirty points. In the places where it was discovered, the wells were closed by reinforcing plugs, the condition of which causes concern today as the pressure in some of them, according to experts, is up to 300 bar, and in the case of a breakthrough this could damage the region's ecology. Prime Minister of Abkhazia Leonid Lakerbaia said at the signing of the agreement that technical and environmental monitoring of the status of these wells is not as important as the search for new oil fields, as the conservation of the natural environment in the country is the keystone . He also called it an important fact that from the start of preliminary work the open joint stock company will make appropriate tax payments to the budget of the republic .
According to the edition, the relevant exploration will begin in February and March 2014 in the Gali and Ochamchira district, where the first Soviet wells were drilled, and this will last approximately two years, after which it will be known whether Abkhazia has these minerals in significant quantities. All the costs required for arranging items and accommodating specialists will cost tens of millions of dollars. "This is a commercial risk that we may incur”, the head of the oil company Eduard Hudaynatov said. “With prosperous development of the situation here, highly-qualified specialists of our company will be involved. We will construct the necessary enterprises, port and other objects. And at all stages we will involve the local population in the work".
After the detection of the first examples of "black gold" it will take another year to examine the structure of the oil and to determine whether it is favorable to pump it out and whether it conforms to generally-accepted international standards. The documents on oil examination in Abkhazia carried out in the Soviet era were lost, so all this work is to be done.
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According to the "Ingushetia" newspaper, by the end of 2013 and early in 2014 in the republic it was planned to put into operation about 40 facilities. In accordance with the schedule, more than 30 facilities are ready to open, and the rest of them are in the final phase. About 20 facilities will be opened in January 2014.
Among the buildings and engineering and social infrastructure expected to open this month there is the Dzheyrakh district hospital with 50 beds, an administrative building of FMS , a freight yard in Karabulak, two obstetric stations in the villages of Kantyshevo and Dolakovo, 5 kindergartens, (two of them – after reconstruction), two gas pipelines in Nazran and Karabulak, several substations and power lines, as well as a residential complex in Magas and the State Unitary Enterprise "Atlas" in the village of Troitskoye.
The newspaper reports that recently in a picturesque corner of the mountainous region, the rural village of Olgetti in the Dzheyrakh district, one of the largest health facilities of the republic was opened. With the commissioning of this facility, mountaineers will not have to travel for medical services to Nazran and to spend a lot of time and money. Head of the republic Yunus-bek Yevkurov hopes that regional and municipal authorities link the future of the republic to the development of mountainous Ingushetia; it is precisely in this area that tourism is developing, which can become an engine of economic development as a whole.
