By Vestnik Kavkaza
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met the head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition Ahmad Jarba in Paris yesterday ahead of the international conference on Syria Geneva-2. This week, Lavrov is due to meet the Special Envoy of the UN and the Arab League on Syria, Lahdar Brahimi, the Foreign minister of France Laurent Fabius, the Foreign Minister of Jordan Naser Joda, and the Secretary of State of the USA Jhon Kerry.
According to the senior political scientist of the Center of International Security IMEMO of the RAS, Stanislav Ivanov, “the idea of Geneva-2 should cause positive emotions and raise hopes for a halt to the fratricidal murderous war in Syria. Today the 22-million Syrian nation suffered losses (more than 100 000 people were killed, a half of a million were injured, more than 3 million people became refugees) which are similar to losses of countries which participated in the Second World War. Such a massacre in peacetime!”
Ivanov is pessimistic about prospects of Geneva-2: “The last session of the National Coalition, the opposition revolutionary forces of Syria, in Istanbul showed that the national opposition is not ready. Shifting a decision on its participation on January 17th confirms that opponents of Bashar Assad are far away from Geneva-2. The part of the opposition which arrived to Istanbul is under great influence of the Persian Gulf monarchies and the West. The Coalition was formed in Doha (the first session), and people were chosen from immigrant circles, who are beneficial for the West. Of course it is corrupted and well-organized; but even this “hand-held” opposition demonstrated ineffectiveness in Istanbul. A part of it didn’t come, a part – 45 people – left it for various reasons, including the reason of disagreement with Geneva-2; 6 fractions left the Coalition. Today readiness of the opposition to participate in Geneva-2 is close to zero.”
Considering the situation, Ivanov concludes that holding of the international conference on January 22nd is at risk: “While the war in Syria continues, while it is sponsored by the Gulf monarchies which stir up the situation, any Geneva-2 is doomed to fail. Before negotiations in Geneva, the separated parts of the opposition should hold a session under the UN SC supervision, all sides, all countries involved in the countries. First of all, Iran should be present there as a supporter of Bashar Assad. Turkey should participate in it, as well as the Gulf monarchies; and a resolution of the Security Council should be made.”
Ivanov feels sorry that no resolution on interference with internal affairs of Syria has been made yet: “Qatar and Saudi Arabia spend millions, recruit, supply, send, equip. Foreign soldiers of fortune, “volunteers,” Islamists, Jihadists cannot be defeated. I cannot see a victory in the war under such a foreign aid, foreign disturbance, and atmosphere.”
Ivanov’s vision on the way out it: “All parties, including Jordan where militant camps are situation, Turkey where corridors for penetration of our former Soviet citizens exist, should gather and adopt a resolution: from now on any foreign interference with internal affairs of Syria is considered an international crime. If the foreign military aid is not stopped, if the countries which invest into the war are not made to stop it, they won’t do it willingly. They wait for a result; and a result for them is overthrowing of Bashar Assad.”
