By Vestnik Kavkaza
This year the USA is going to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. The majority of experts believe that after this the situation in Central Asia could significantly worsen.
Last year the Analytical Association of the CSTO held an opinion poll among experts of various countries, not only members of the CSTO. It appears 80% of experts believe that the situation in the region will be even less stable. Experts are afraid of an inflow of militant groups which were trained in numerous camps and training centers in Afghanistan, the spread of radical religious ideas, support for local fundamentalists in the states of Central Asia, the activeness of terrorists, and drug trafficking to the CSTO countries and Europe.
Analytics see four possible scenarios of developments after the coalition’s withdrawal from Afghanistan:
- successful international cooperation
- gradual deterioration, including shifting of instability from the Middle East to Central Asia
- intensification of “the big game” between the superpowers
- an explosion, a disaster, and collapse of states in Central Asia.
Igor Panarin, the coordinator of the Analytical Association of the CSTO, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the possible scenarios.
- How can the consequences of the Arab Spring influence the countries of the CSTO?
- We are not interested in destabilization of the region which neighbours the Collective Security Treaty Organization – it is very close to Armenia’s borders, the most southern member of the organization. There are several threats for us.
The first is an inflow of refugees. The inflow of refugees from Syria is growing; first of all, these are Christian Armenians who suffer from violence in Syria.
The second is technologies which are used in the process. We analyzed them to prevent foreign interference in the internal affairs of not Middle East countries, but members of the CSTO. We discussed the technologies at a roundtable discussion which took place on December 19th, and developed recommendations which were sent to the countries of the CSTO. I believe it is an “injection” to prevent the negative and destabilizing tendencies which we have seen in the Middle East in the last two years.
- And what about an explosion in Central Asia? What states are under threat?
- This scenario is the most improbable. An explosion is possible in all countries of Central Asia. So I don’t want to point out any of them. However, the threat shouldn’t be underestimated, as extremists are the main driving force of the revolutions. And they can come to all countries of Central Asia from Afghanistan. Nobody is secure from the negative influence, unfortunately.
