By Vestnik Kavkaza
Ukraine has been chairing the Commonwealth of Independent States since January 1st, 2014.
This was decided in Minsk at the CIS summit, a month before Kiev’s rejection of signing the association agreement with the EU at the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership. Victor Yanukovich’s decision pleased experts who speak about the EU’s intention to disintegrate the post-Soviet space and withdraw the CIS countries from Russia’s influence.
Valery Muntiyan, the government envoy on cooperation with Russia and the CIS countries, speaks about the priorities of Kiev during its chairmanship in the Commonwealth (see http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/49949.html). This article is devoted to the expectations of Moscow and Yerevan of Kiev.
Tatul Manaseryan, Professor, PhD (Economics), says that “there are tasks on the free trade zone. At the same time, Ukraine, as well as Armenia, plans to join the Customs Union. The CU was founded four years ago, and only after that did they decide that it is necessary to return to the initial integration form and signed the document on the free trade zone. Aren’t there contradictions?”
It is important for Yerevan that Ukraine is not only a member of the CIS, but also of the GUAM. “Won’t the interests of the GUAM contradict the interests of the CIS? And what economically-attractive mechanisms will Ukraine and not only Ukraine suggest within the CIS concept?” Manaseryan asks. “The CIS is more a political union, while the EU and other regional organizations are attractive because economic mechanisms are working there. Improvement of the CIS will enable us to improve our cooperation with the EU.”
“The CIS is a space of contradictions,” Iskandaryan, political scientist, Director of the Caucasus Institute, believes. “If we have contradictions, there should be a platform for settling the contradictions. As for Ukraine, it is the western side of the CIS. Due to its geographical situation, its transit role, its role in the security sphere, its role in the sphere of producing certain products which are used in the security sphere, its economy and its prospects, Ukraine is a country which has its own agenda. If they really intend to do it, if other countries of the CIS support the formats, I think it will be a good chairmanship.”
Alexander Gusev, the head of the Center of Strategic Development of the CIS Countries under the RAS Institute of Europe, thinks that the Ukrainian chairmanship of the CIS is a significant event: “In the context of the political situation which was formed in Ukraine, in the context of the political situation which was formed in relations between Ukraine and the EU, 2014 will be a landmark for Ukraine and the CIS in general. The way Ukraine will gradually intensify its involvement in the CIS will influence the further development of not only the Commonwealth, but also integration processes in the post-Soviet space in general. Ukraine should be a driver of integration processes in the post-Soviet space.”
After studying the concept of Ukrainian chairmanship of the CIS, Gusev concluded that “the economic component is very important for Ukraine, especially in the sphere of oil, gas, machinery, professional equipment; about 50% of components and production prime costs – these are Russian investments. I welcome Ukraine’s turn toward the CIS and Russia. And I have many opinion allies in Russia, Ukraine, and other CIS states.”
