Ukraine: on the way to a split

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Yesterday, Vladimir Putin talked to Angela Merkel over the phone, and it seems the talk was long. As for Ukraine, according to official information, “it is emphasized that any external interference is unacceptable.” However, apparently Russian President hinted that instability in Ukraine puts gas transit to Europe at risk.

The same day the deputy chairman of Gazprom Board, Alexander Medvedev, stated: “There are statements that the gas transport system of Ukraine can be attacked by extremists… The most important thing is to stabilize the situation and conduct negotiations purposefully, notwithstanding, who are negotiators. There was no external interference. Unfortunately, we see certain Western politicians among the so-called demonstrators…”

Yesterday it was announced at talks between Putin and the government that Russia would wait for forming a new government in Ukraine to continue fulfillment of financial and energetic obligations. The first vice-premier Igor Shuvalov promised that as soon as a new Ukrainian government is formed, negotiations will be started.

Meanwhile, Zarifullin Paul, Director of the Lev Gumilev Center, thinks that the statement of Moscow that it is not going to interfere in the affairs of sovereign Ukraine is short-sighted and strange: “We have invested incredible money supporting the regime of Yanukovych,” Zarifullin says.  It is not only about reduction of gas prices for Ukraine to $268.5 per 1 thousand cubic meters, but also Russia’s purchase of Ukrainian Eurobonds for $15 billion.

Zarifullin says that the money is now lost, “because the Ukrainian currency is falling with terrible force, all the rating agencies have lowered the rating of Ukraine. And today it is not just a failed state, but a state on the verge of collapse. So certainly, when everybody interferes and meddles in the affairs of Ukraine to distance themselves from the events in Ukraine is unwise, it seems to me.”

According to Zarifullin, “because of the events of recent months, there is indeed an official demarcation between the southeast and the west of Ukraine. The borders have not been well drawn, but there was a subjectivation of the Southeast as a political system. This space lacked a common cause. Now their eyes shine, they want to participate in something, they want a Eurasian Union, there is a political will, a political order in society. Unfortunately, the "Party of the Regions", headed by our "favorite" Viktor Yanukovych, cannot yet meet this order because of the inertia of its leadership, and because this leadership is simply not interested in the status quo. It will continue sitting on two or three chairs, and waste Putin's billions.”

Zarifullin says that riots are largely beneficial for the leaders of the "Party of the Regions": “This way you do not need to join either the Customs Union or the EU, you can speculate between this and that, to borrow here and there, to make promises everywhere, and sit in the Kyiv palace, changing ministers and some leaders and be excited by it.”

The expert is sure that the Southeast feels its separateness, its otherness, it was pushed into this, as they see it, they are oriented towards living with Russia, in the same space: “We, as a civil society, as a soft power, will do everything to facilitate this, so that such a force appears in Ukraine, which would focus exclusively on the inclusion of Ukraine or most of the Ukraine into the Eurasian Union. Because otherwise the country will be flooded by civil war, and the course "both for ours, and for yours", with endless reaping of the benefits, is not efficient. The course of endless feeding, training,  gratification and salvation of Yanukovych must also be stopped.”

Stanislav Stremidlovsky, chief expert at the International Institute of the newest states in Ukraine, is sure that Ukraine has taken another major step on the road to disintegration. “If we look at the statement made by the former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Mykola Azarov, when he retired on his own initiative, his last sentence was: "I have to take these steps, because we need to preserve the unity and integrity of Ukraine, because now that is the  main thing." If this question is put by a person of the status of Azarov, then the problem of unity and integrity is approaching, so to say, the very rapids of the Dnieper,” Stremidlovsky says.  He thinks it becomes clear that the opposition, represented by Western Ukraine, had made an offer to Eastern Ukraine, and this offer is the country's disintegration, a split. It is an initiative by Western Ukraine. We call them nationalists, but to what extent they are nationalists, and to what extent it is something new, is yet to be explained.”