By Peter Lyukimson, Israel. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Last week, Israeli journalists received information that high-ranking members of the intelligence, Foreign Ministry, government and other structures of Israel were having intensive meetings with their counterparts in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and some other countries.
Secret meetings were held in Egypt, Jordan and Morocco or on ‘neutral territories’ under the cover of some international forum. It is unclear whether any agreements were signed at such meetings but the tendency is very obvious: the threat of the Iranian atom encourages Israel and the Arab world to be closer. This means formation of ‘a Semitic coalition’ to stand against a common enemy. It is noteworthy that Arabs and Jews are Semites and their languages have a lot of similarities. One of the factors for the rapprochement is the disappointment of Israel and Arab states with the US and their increasing reluctance to act as a fairway for US policy. This doubtlessly means that the sides are ready to cooperate with Russia, though the geopolitical moves in the Near and Middle East could continue.
High-ranking sources of the Israeli government did not deny the information. They said that the contacts were preliminary and there was nothing to tell about them or discuss the topic at all.
Authorities of Arab states have a similar attitude. Their mass media just mentioned meetings with Israeli officials. According to Israeli expert in Arab studies Ariel Kahane, “the most important recent event in the Arab world is that their leaders have realized: Israel is no enemy of the Arabs. Moreover, it can become an ally. But now they need to think how they will explain it to their people after decades of demonizing the Jewish state in the mass media and all platforms. This is not easy because it means a major turn in the public conscience of a whole nation. From this point of view, the exalted compliments recently given to Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni by Prince of Saudi Arabia Turki bin Faisal Al Saud means a lot. Well, warm handshakes exchanged by members of the Israeli delegation with the hosts of a recent ecological conference in Dubai was a bit too much. A few years ago, such a thing was unimaginable.”
Certainly, emphasizes Kahane, many differences between Israel and the Arab world remain and the Palestinian problem is one of the main ones. To be more precise, the problem of Palestinian refugees and their offspring in Arab states (mainly Jordan). The countries are still unprepared to grant them citizenship and demand solutions for the problem via an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. And again, according to Kahane, there is certain progress in the evaluation of the problem.
Judging by the information that journalists received, Israeli-Arab cooperation is developing in three aspects.
Firstly, within the framework of the special services. Neither Israel nor Saudi Arabia nor the UAE trust the data Iran gave about its nuclear program to the IAEA, the US and the EU. So they prefer to rely on their own intelligence data.
Secondly, they plan joint actions at the UN and other international organizations if the West shows ‘weakness’ during peace talks with Iran.
Thirdly, they may coordinate actions of the military if the ‘Semitic coalition’ decides that there is no solution other than a strike on Iranian military facilities.
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Israel and Saudi Arabia make no bones about their concerns over the new round of talks between the West and Iran. Baroness Ashton has recently declared that she did not rule out that the negotiations to settle the nuclear problem with Iran will go a lot longer than planned initially. This statement caused outrage in the Foreign Ministries of both countries. The Israelis and Saudi Arabians refuse to understand why such a statement was necessary before the negotiations. They see confirmation of their original worries: the ‘temporary deal’ signed in Geneva in the context of constantly dragged-out negotiations will be viewed as a permanent one. This will mean a gradual lifting of the sanctions against Iran, full legitimization of the fundamentalist regime in the eyes of the world public and development of cooperation between Iran and the West, Russia and Asian states. Meanwhile, Iran would continue enriching uranium to 5%, because the agreement recently signed in Geneva allows it. When stockpiles of uranium enriched to 5% exceed 700kg, Iran will no longer need any deals with the West and building an atomic bomb will need only a few weeks.
Israel and Saudi Arabia remember Hassan Rouhani’s statement made in 2005 well. Back then, he represented Iran in the first attempt to negotiate with the West. “The one who can enrich uranium to 3% knows how to bring it to the level of 90%,” Rouhani said.
“As the threat of Iran rises, the pace of Israel’s rapprochement with the Arab states will speed up. Because of that, both sides are starting to understand that they have no other allies and they can only rely on each other,” Ariel Kahane asserts.
The future will show whether the thesis is true or not.
