In the upcoming weeks, the special envoy of the UN and the Arab League on Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, will report on the progress of peace efforts in the Syria crisis at the international conference "Geneva-2" to the UN Security Council and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Currently, according to Mr Brahimi, significant progress in the negotiations could not be reached. Rormer Russian Ambassador to Syria Alexander Zotov exects no breakthroughs from the conference either.
“There is no talk about a positive scenario. The very convening of this conference has been postponed many times, things seemed unsolvable, when one side was saying "and with whom should we talk, who are they?" - I am talking about the authorities in Damascus - and the other side said that they only considered the authorities in terms of capitulation and the transfer of power. Certainly, there is nothing to talk about from such positions,” reminds Mr Zotov. From this point of view, Geneva-2 is a certain step forward. “At least the fact that those who are somehow involved in the Syrian tragedy, the Syrian crisis, have realized that international efforts and primarily Syrian efforts, should constitute a peace process,” says the former Ambassador. In his opinion, the opposition to a great extent will have to withdraw the claims they have set forward, “namely the dismantling of all government agencies, including the law enforcement bodies, the resignation of President Assad, the restructuring of the entire country under the demands put forward by the opposition, represented in Geneva. “
For Mr Zotov, the key to success is to have a more representative opposition, as he believes there are sensible people in the coordinating council. He believes they should try to eliminate the monopoly of representation of the opposition, which is claimed by one of the teams headed by Ahmad Jarba. “When Jarba came here, we raised the question of forming working groups to address specific issues, not resting on a dead end, which at first was obvious, when first we must talk about dismantling the entire system of governance. What could this process look like in reality? Assad will say: "Okay, I'm leaving." In principle, the Syrian constitution will become invalid. All the security forces, army and state security bodies will be dismissed and will start roaming the streets. It's all clear. How to talk about the restoration of the country under such circumstances?”
According to Mr Zotov, “even the Americans started to get it” that any transitional phase requires a sufficiently strong power. “The renewal of Syria is inevitable. I hope it will proceed in a constructive normal way, but there is a possibility that it will be spontaneous, as it is already happening in eastern and north-eastern regions, there are some emirates, it will all be regarded as support by the Saudis, and no one knows what direction the Kurds are going to choose,” ex-Ambassador warns. He is sure that Syria is facing the danger of the destruction of its statehood but hopes that they will realize that a transition period, regardless of agreements reached by the sides, requires a normal centralized and authoritative strong power.”
