Yanukovych Trap

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Six city halls in Ukraine are still occupied by the opposition militants. These are regional administrations in Ivano-Frankovsk, the Lviv and Ternopol regions, Kiev city hall, Sokal regional administration in the Lviv region, and the debating chamber of the Poltava regional council. According to the Ukrainian General Prosecution, 37 facilities and buildings are under control of the opposition. If in four days they don’t leave occupied buildings and don’t unblock highways, radical opponents of the government, who were arrested by law-enforcement agencies, won’t be released.

Information war is gaining momentum. Yesterday YouTube banned the Ukrainian Interior Ministry channel. The ministry reminded that it’s not the first time YouTube banned the channel. This time the channel was banned, after publication of a video about two men who were drunk at a bank. Earlier bloggers stated that the police beat and kidnapped them.

The peaceful protest, as an independent political reality in Ukraine, has almost self-destructed. According to political scientist Sergey Markov, peaceful demonstrators are primarily a cover for outright preparation. What is happening in Ukraine is considered by Markov a "creeping" coup d’état, who heavily criticizes the West: “A gross interference in the sovereign affairs of an independent European state. Also, illegal armed groups are openly supported, as well as acts of violence against civilians, acts of violence against the authorities. In doing this, a very severe and quite deceitful propaganda campaign is being carried out, trying to obscure the fact that at the core of the leadership of these illegal armed groups are outright fascists, anti-Semites.”

Markov explains the West’s behavior in Ukraine as following: “In November they suddenly decided that they must avenge Putin and Yanukovych personally. They are ready to ditch it only to prevent it from entering into an alliance with Russia. It is an extremely irresponsible position, comparable to how the West behaved in Syria, Libya and Egypt.”

According to Markov, President of Ukraine Victor Yanukovych got trapped: “In the circumstances where one party is ready to use force in the struggle for power and the other side is afraid to use it, as you must understand, the one who is willing to use force will be destined to win. Yanukovych can't use force, because he is threatened by the West that they will liquidate its capital, as well as the capital of all his oligarchic friends. They have a consortium, kind of a joint-stock company - "Party of Regions", they control most of these deputies.”

Moreover, Makarov says that Yanukovich fears that the rebellion acquires an even tougher phase not only in the center of Kiev, where they can still suppress the situation, but above all in western Ukraine, where it is impossible to suppress.

The political scientist sees two scenarios that can save Yanukovich.

The first option is his showing willingness to use the force option. In this case, it will be a parity, both sides are willing to use force. The West, the U.S. and the European Union, will relax the pressure a bit, and the opposition can sit down at the negotiation table for compromise.

The second option that can save Yanukovych is the self-organization of the southeast, the same formation of illegal armed groups in the south and east. In this case, the illegal armed formations begin to confront each other, begin to cancel each other out. “This situation is very dangerous,” Markov admits. “But at least the authorities would become necessary then, and a compromise would be possible.”