For the second year in a row the German parliamentary society in Berlin holds the German-Azerbaijani round table on support of stability, security, and cooperation in the South Caucasus. The event is devoted to the Khodzhaly massacre, a black page in the history of Azerbaijan, which was one of the most murderous episodes of the Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan; it led to the deaths of more than 600 unarmed Azerbaijanis, including the elderly, women, and children.
The round table was organized by the embassy of Azerbaijan in Germany and the German-Azerbaijani Forum. Many top politicians of Azerbaijan and Germany took part, including the deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Khalaf Khalafov, the ambassador of Azerbaijan in Germany Parviz Sakhbazov, the parliamentary state secretary of the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development of Germany Christian Schmitt, the vice-president of the PACE and the head of the German delegation in this structure Aksel Fischer, a MP from the ruling party CDU Marko Wanderwic, the head of the Moscow bureau of FOCUS Boris Reitschuster, and numerous diplomats and Berlin expert society.
Special attention was paid to a speech of the coordinator of the German Foreign Ministry on Socio-Political Cooperation with Russia, Countries of the Eastern Partnership, and Central Asia, Gernot Erler. It resembled a scientific analysis of geopolitical reality of the South Caucasus, rather than a traditional diplomatic speech. The German expert pointed out that at the summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius the eastern policy of the EU was attacked, he meant Ukrainian President’s rejection of signing the association agreement with the EU. According to Erler, the consequences of the attack will influence relations between the EU and the South Caucasus countries.
"Obviously, the European Union and the Customs Union are seen as two competing integration areas" –Mr Erler stated. In the case of Ukraine, Kiev was made to choose - either the EU or the Customs Union. "It was only during the last EU-Russia summit that experts were told to find the answer to the question whether such a categorical choice between two integration spaces really has no alternative," said the politician.
Mr Erler said that during the Vilnius summit Georgia initialed the Association Agreement with the EU, the signing of which is scheduled for this summer. "If the Russian authorities try to prevent the signing of the agreement with Georgia, as it did in Ukraine, a new round of tension is to be expected – this time, close to the borders of Azerbaijan" he stated. Mr Erler believes that in this case there will again be problems for the export of Georgian products to the Russian market, as well as tougher visa policy against Georgian nationals. "This will inevitably undermine the process of normalization of relations between Tbilisi and Moscow", he concluded.
Within the framework of the "Eastern Partnership", the EU is also negotiating with Baku. Azerbaijan, generally adhering to the policy of European integration, however, considers other vectors of its policy to be of great importance, including the relationship with Russia as one of the key directions. We should not lose sight of the fact that Russia is a major exporter of goods to Azerbaijan, being ahead of both Turkey and the EU. Trade relations between Baku and Moscow also include large deals involving Russian military equipment and weapons. “Besides, Azerbaijan is aware that solving its state policy issue number - restoration of the territorial integrity of the republic - is impossible without Russia", - said Erler, hinting that the key to the resolution of the Nagorno -Karabakh conflict is in Moscow.
The German politician praised Azerbaijan's decision to support the project of the Southern Gas Corridor, which will allow the EU to diversify its sources of natural gas supply. This decision was an important pro-European step of Azerbaijan, Mr Erler marked. However, he is sure that in the future, Russia will continue to try to buy all the Azeri gas from the "Shah Deniz 2" project.
The German diplomat stressed that, while Tbilisi leads a unilateral policy in a westerly direction, and Yerevan in the direction of the Customs Union, Baku implements confident policy on the combination of two directions. Only a strong and confident state can afford such a policy. "You can see that Baku doesn’t seeks to associate with the EU as much as to the conclusion of a "privileged partnership" with Brussels. More precisely, it is a strategic partnership for modernization" said Mr Erler . According to him, Azerbaijan's foreign policy aimed at maintaining the peaceful coexistence of the two integration areas can serve as an example for other countries in the region." Increased tensions between the EU and Russia will only aggravate the situation in the region and , in particular, will deepen the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is essential to prevent a new Cold War, the contours of which will be outlined through the South Caucasus" concluded the coordinator of the German Foreign Ministry on relations with Russia, the countries of the Eastern Partnership and Central Asia.
