By Vestnik Kavkaza
On March 30th, municipal elections took place in Turkey. The ruling Party of Justice and Development won the elections. There are different views on Premier Erdogan’s policy and relations between regional and world powers.
Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies, told Vestnik Kavkaza, that “in the context of the weakening of the USA a new system of regional security should be established. It is clear that Turkey is one of key states in the South Caucasus, like Iran and Russia. Thus, Russia, Iran, and Turkey should agree on a new regional security system, new approaches to its establishment, as all of us are against a big war. A general security system, for example, in the Caucasus cannot be built together with taking anti-Iranian activities in Syria.”
Moreover, according to Yevseyev, there are serious economic interests: “There is interest in exporting Iranian gas to Turkey. Turkey would like to stay a transit country for Iranian gas.” However, the expert says that “the USA is not trying to eliminate Erdogan, but to make it clear that they could create internal destabilization. In fact, a person who lives in the USA has initiated an investigation into the corruption scandals on the territory of Turkey. This led to a wide public response. It was accompanied by arrests and criminal cases. So when the USA starts providing a policy against Premier Erdogan in Turkey, Erdogan should think thoroughly whether he needs cooperation with the USA.”
Yevseyev thinks that “Erdogan understands the situation in the right way and he will reduce, not cancel, but reduce contacts with the USA. This will encourage the development of relations with Iran. I think, considering Turkey-Iran-Russia, the most important thing is to improve Iranian-Turkish relations. If Iranian-Turkish relations are improved, and Russia is improving its relations with Tehran, there will be an option for the establishment of a regional security system, at first in the South Caucasus, and later in a wider context.”
Konstantin Sivkov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, thinks that “banning YouTube and Facebook confirms that Erdogan is taking unpopular measures and cannot predict the consequences.” The expert doesn’t exclude a military aggression of Turkey against Syria and thinks the attack may be fatal for Ankara: “The attack would be very unpopular among the Turkish population. It would lead to internal social tension and even a social explosion. Of course, it would make the Kurds take a stand against Turkey or even separate from it. While the Turkish Army was occupied in Syria, and almost all its troops should be directed there and only a small part would protect its borders, would be the most favorable time for the Kurds. And I am sure they would use it and the Syrian Kurds would help them. Finally, the American military machine got stuck at first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq without achievements. The Turkish military machine is much less powerful, and of course it would get stuck in Syria. As a result, Turkey could break up.”
According to Sivkov, “the West needs at least a small victory, as otherwise it will lose face. So they try to find any opportunity for a victory; the Western elites push their allies (I think Erdogan is acting under pressure from the West); and there is an option that they will dare invade Syria. And this option is quite real. Of course, it will be a tough challenge for Turkey and Syria. It could be fatal for Turkey. It would explode the Middle East. that Turkey would be considered a military aggressor by the international community.”
