Viktoria Panfilova, contributor to "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", exclusively for "Vestnik Kavkaza"
Predictions of a possible warming in relations between Armenia and Turkey do not seem justified as we approach the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. Moreover, the parties did not only remain with their opinions on the question of the tragedy, their rhetoric has become even more fearsome.
On the eve of the tragedy, commemorated on April 24, Ankara strengthened its position against the countries recognizing the tragedy, as well as to special events scheduled to take place in a number of countries to commemorate the tragedy. Ankara is accusing Yerevan of stagnating the process of normalizing relations with Armenia, which contrary to the "Zurich protocols" once again returned to certain preconditions.
Armenia, in turn, is certain that the process of improving bilateral relations has been stalled by Turkey, also contrary to the "Zurich protocols" linking it to the Karabakh problem due to strategic relations with Azerbaijan and formally using the fact that the protocols signed in Switzerland were given to the Constitutional Court of Armenia for revision.
The "football diplomacy" marked by mutual visits of Presidents Abdullah Gullu and Serzh Sargsyan to visit each other led to the signing of the "Zurich protocols." These protocols ensured a step by step normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations without any preconditions. Diplomatic relations between the countries were broken off in 1993 by Turkey in solidarity with Azerbaijan, which had lost its territories during the war with Armenia. However, the agreement signed in Switzerland has not been ratified, since Ankara and Yerevan suspected each other of violating preliminary agreements and the agreement was removed from the operational agenda of the highest legislative bodies of both countries. A slight warming of relations was followed by a worsening of relations. Today, there are fears that the "Zurich protocols" might be entirely forgotten.
These fears have been generated by a recent statement made by President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan at a meeting in the Ministry of Defense of Armenia. He flatly accused the Turkish side of stagnation and said it was responsible for the lack of progress in the reconciliation process. Judging from the president's speech, Yerevan is certain that there will be no progress in relations with Ankara.
A political scientist living in Berlin, Ashot Manucharyan, has shared his opinion with "Vestnik Kavkaza." He believes that there will be no decisive actions regarding cancelling the "Zurich protocols." If at the moment stagnation in the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations can be attributed to a misunderstanding or a low level of mutual trust, the cancellation of agreements by one of the parties will result in a loss of reputation in the eyes of the international community. Especially given the fact that a few days ago a representative of a U.S. State Department, Jane Psak, reiterated that "both sides remain committed to the process of normalization of relations, since none of them has cancelled the protocols."
"April 24, the anniversary of the genocide, is around the corner. This date has to be in accordance with what the whole of Europe is commemorating today. It is commemorating the 100th anniversary of the First World War, and the tragedy of the Armenians is somewhere in the background for the Europeans," Manucharyan explains possible reasons behind Sargsyan's harsh statements.
