By Vestnik Kavkaza
The agreement between Iran and the 5+1 international mediators (Russia, the UK, Germany, China, the USA, France) should be implemented by tomorrow. According to the agreement, Tehran has to take seven practical steps aimed at making its nuclear program transparent and eliminating the suspicions of Western countries that Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
At the same time, there are different views on intensifying contacts between the West and Tehran, both in Iran and in Western countries. According to a senior research fellow of the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Sazhin, “a part of the Republicans in the USA and a part of the Democrats do not support Obama in his attitude toward the Iranian nuclear problem. In Iran not everybody supports President Rouhani’s policy; and the opposition is quite powerful – a part of the conservative clergy and the majority of supporters of the former president Ahmadinejad, who is the strongest opponent of Rouhani, especially the IRGC.”
Sazhin says that the IRGC is “a powerful system, which was established as an alternative to the army, but now it takes a greater space. Due to the former president Ahmadinejad, who used to be an IRGC soldier, the system became not only a military, police, political, and propaganda institute, but also an economic one. The main branches of the economy are either controlled or serviced by the IRGC. Huge amounts of money passed through the IRGC, including money for the nuclear program. The entire military industry is controlled by the IRGC.
When Rouhani came to office he tried to sideline the IRGC in terms of internal and foreign affairs. He forbade IRGC involvement in foreign policy and began to sideline them from certain economic positions. But still the IRGC maintains powerful positions.”
Sazhin is convinced that “the process of resolving the Iranian nuclear program is going in a positive direction. The IAEA today does not have any problems with Iran. The USA complies with the requirements of the Iranian side. Every month they "defreeze" between 400 and 500 million dollars. But I will say more. The sanctions introduced in 2012 were not removed, but the Americans are closing their eyes to the fact that they are getting softer and softer. One of the Iranian ministers recently said that Iran has increased its oil exports because last year, in the most critical month of August, Iran exported only 700 thousand barrels per day. In the best times Iran exported 2.4 million barrels per day. Exports decreased 3.5-4 times. Now it is better. As the Iranian minister said, Iran could increase its profits from oil by 10 billion dollars. The same happens with insurance, with the banking sector.”
Sazhin thinks “they want to cheer Iran up and make it feel that compromises are possible. The difficult moment is the creation of the mechanism of removing sanctions. It is a difficult moment. It is clear that the Six will not remove all sanctions together, there should be stages. Everything will depend here on the work of the IAEA. And now the question is to approve the text of the final treaty on the Iranian nuclear program - not problem but program - to push the Iranian program in the framework of the IAEA and the UN Security Council.”
However, according to the expert, “the Americans don't want Russia to develop its ties with Iran. The Europeans are interested in compensating their expenses and changing the orientation of their energy policy from Russia to other countries, including Iran. The Iranians are now saying that they will not compete with Russia in hydrocarbon exports to the West, but business is business, good manners don't matter here.”
