By Victoria Panfilova, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Turkmenistan met in Baku on Monday and discussed topical issues of bilateral and trilateral relations and essential aspects of cooperation in the future. Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov clarified that they focused on delivery of Caspian gas to Europe. Experts assume that realization of the Southern Corridor by Caspian states would make the European market more dependent on Russian partners. However, the volumes of Caspian energy resources would be insignificant in comparison with the quantities from Russia.
The Southern Corridor will keep the EU supplied with natural gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq and, in the long run, from Iran. The SOCAR and BP signed an investment deal at the end of 2013. “The project gives us an opportunity to start developing the large gas reserves of Azerbaijan, secondly, Azerbaijan turns into an important supplier of energy in Europe and, thirdly, connecting the Caspian Region and European markets will bring profit to countries from the Caspian Sea to the center of Europe,” said SOCAR Head Rovnag Abdullayev after signing the deal.
10 billion cubic meters of gas a year will be extracted from the Shah Deniz-2 Field and transported to European markets for 25 years. 6 billion cubic meters will be exported to Turkey. This will require extension of the South-Caucasus Pipeline running through Azerbaijan and Georgia, construction of the Trans-Anatolia Pipeline (TANAP) through Turkey and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) through Greece and Albania to Italy. Officials in Baku and Ankara say that the gas pipelines “should be built taking into account a possible extension to increase the transit capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor beyond 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year.” Turkish Minister for Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz clarified: “The TANAP project is interested in additional volumes of Turkmen gas.” Involving Turkmenistan in the project would make Azerbaijan a transit state, according to its geographic position.
SOCAR and Rosneft have recently signed a deal to create a joint venture. Igor Sechin and Rovnag Abdullayev noted after signing the document at the Petersburg International Economic Forum that the deal will initiate realization of high-scale projects in Siberia, on the Caspian Sea shelf and other areas. It will give both companies access to new consumer markets. Azerbaijan has become a state transiting Russian electricity to Iran.
Turkmenistan is not interested in gas infrastructure abroad and wants to deliver gas to its border. This is why it was pretty passive in construction of gas pipelines under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan. Turkmenistan understands that such a project cannot be realized without settlement of the Caspian status issue. In order to resolve the problem, the five Caspian states need to reach a consensus. Thus, the fate of the underwater gas pipeline will remain misty. So the West is likely to consider the idea of constructing a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Iran on condition that the sanctions will be lifted and the will of Europe to reduce gas dependence on Russia would become irreversible.
Ilgar Velizadeh, the head of the South Caucasus Club of political analysts, characterized the meeting of foreign ministers in Baku as a more significant event than mere gas talks. “Judging by the atmosphere of the meetings, the topics raised, the spirit and the Baku Declaration passed at the end of the event, the meeting of foreign ministers of the three states serves to be the foundation of a trilateral format of relations of the three most culturally and linguistically akin Turkic states,” Velizadeh told Vestnik Kavkaza. In his words, it is not the first attempt to realize the Turkish-Azerbaijani-Turkmen format of collaboration on a more or less permanent basis. The presidents of the three states met in Turkmenbashi in autumn 2008 for the first time to outline clear steps of their joint efforts. They failed to continue the process the way they planned. One of the reasons for that was the reinvigoration of the Azerbaijani-Turkmen dispute over the resources of the Caspian Sea. Moreover, Ashkhabad was a step away from realization of major projects on gas deliveries to China, so the western direction was not a priority course.
The situation has changed now. Russia signed a big gas deal with China and its realization would likely affect the prices. There are no doubts that Beijing will reconsider its current supplier and their terms of exports. Turkmenistan may respond to the interest of Europe in its gas.
“Maybe the meeting of the Turkish and Turkmen foreign ministers in Baku will be the basis for efficient cooperation. Turkey in this case serves as the main lobbyist of Turkmen gas exports to Europe,” Velizadeh assumes.
Activation of Ashkhabad’s involvement in the cooperation format of Turkic states was another topic at the ministerial meeting in Baku. Turkmenistan had been participating in the format represented by its speaker of parliament or vice prime minister. The partners of the format may now expect the Turkmen president to partake in the process. It will benefit the image of the alliance of Turkic states. Overall, the format may expand and include Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Kyrgyzstan. “The fact that the ministers agreed to make the trilateral-format meeting a regular event means the existence of a stable interest in discussions of the main cooperation topics. The decisions made will depend on its content,” Velizadeh emphasized.
