Iran and 5+1 waiting for July 20th

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Yesterday the sixth round of the talks between Iran and the 5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) on Tehran’s nuclear program opened in Vienna. Both sides state that by July 20th they intend to come to an agreement on guarantees of the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for eliminating international sanctions against Tehran.

The deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Ryabkov, who heads the Russian delegation in the talks, thinks that it is realistic to prepare an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program by July 20th. “It is confirmed by the mood of the 5+1 which appeared during the coordinating meeting in Brussels. The result of the talks will become a document with enclosures. And this document will be presented to the ministers of the 5+1 and Iran, but it doesn’t exist yet,” Ryabkov added.

Vladimir Sazhin, a senior scientist at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS, told Vestnik Kavkaza: “It would be great if the text is agreed by July 20th. But I wouldn’t make the date crucial. The main point is that the process is going on intensively. It hasn’t been happening for 11 years, when the Iranian nuclear problem occurred. Since January 2013, the 5+1 have met Iran every month. Every meeting is a step forward. At the moment we are at a final stage of the talks, I hope. I think it is quite possible that the text will be agreed, as all sides are interested in it.”

According to Sazhin, each of participants follows its own interest, but they all are interested in a settlement of the Iranian problem: “Iran is interested in it, as its main goal is elimination of sanctions. So the general interest makes us say that the agreement will be signed. But the question is how the agreement will encourage a complete settlement of the Iranian nuclear program. There are various points of view on the problem.”

Sazhin says that “there is a big group of American politicians which thinks that the only solution to the Iranian nuclear problem is depriving Iran of its nuclear infrastructure and the opportunity to conduct nuclear studies. Israel supports this idea. The situation is ambiguous in Iran as well. A big opposition group thinks that there should be no talks with the West, and they should develop the nuclear program despite the sanctions. Compromises are needed.”

Sazhin believes that to solve the Iranian nuclear problem means to squeeze it into the requirements of the IAEA and the UN SC under total control of development of the program by inspectors of the IAEA. Will Iran agree to include an additional protocol on the IAEA control over its nuclear facilities in the final agreement?

According to Sazhin, “the nuclear program of a country which signs the additional protocol becomes more transparent and available for the IAEA in all senses. It is very important. And it will be a great progress.”

Sazhin thinks it doesn’t matter when the document will be signed, but if it is signed and ratified by the parliaments of all sides, the problem will be eliminated from the international agenda.