The South Caucasus is safer in comparison with other conflict regions

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Last week a session of the Council of Defense Ministers of the CIS countries headed by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu was held in Astana. One of the main issues of the Astana meeting was the development of joint systems of air defense and missile defense. The agreement of 1995 on establishing the joint system of air defense of the CIS is one of the most significant achievements of the integration processes in the sphere of military cooperation. It is still the only real defense system of the Commonwealth. This year a contract was signed, according to which five divisions of S-300 air defense missile systems should be exported to Kazakhstan.

According to Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, “The CIS in terms of security is not one organization, it is three organizations, three layers. One - moving ahead from Moscow to Central Asia, and there the main call, in my opinion, is really Afghanistan and everything that is generated from Afghanistan, in particular Islamic radicalism. The second layer is the western part and everything that is connected with Ukraine and Moldova. And the third is the South Caucasus, which in this sense is the safest.”

An important achievement of military cooperation is thought to be development of methods of peacemaking steps which have been implemented during the operation on peacekeeping in Tajikistan, where a positive result was achieved due to peacemakers of the CIS. However, settlement of the current conflicts in the CIS and prevention of new ones are thought to be priority directions of the Commonwealth’s activity.

Iskandaryan says: “Unlike Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria etc., in Karabakh there never were any peacekeepers. We consult - we, I mean Karabakhs and Azerbaijanians - consult owing to some balance of arms. The South Caucasus is one of the regions of the world most stuffed with conventional arms, the second or the third. Respectively, there are a lot of arms. When more weapons means more safety, and not the reverse. But violation of the balance can lead to problems. While I wouldn't say that seriously this violation happens. In order that it doesn't occur, CIS tools are necessary, CSTO tools are necessary, tools of interaction of presidents, Ministers of Defence, the commonwealth states are necessary. In this sense, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Karabakh cannot solve this problem on their own, but as part of a package it can be decided in such formats.”

Iskandaryan touched on the challenges for Armenia associated with Ukraine: “The situation in Ukraine affects Armenia. Firstly, Armenians live in Ukraine. Even according to official figures, there are more than 100 thousand, and according to informal ones this number reaches 300 thousand. This means citizens of Ukraine who are ethnic Armenians and citizens of Armenia who live there for various reasons. Already there are ethnic Armenians who died in the Ukrainian conflict from one or from the other side of the conflict.”

In addition, Ukraine is important from the transport point of view for the South Caucasus, for Armenia in particular. “We have a considerable, decent trade exchange. And, in addition, Ukraine affects everything around it. The role and the place of Russia in CIS countries, on how Russia reacts to what occurs in the so-called former Soviet Union. Russia is not a traditionalist country now, but revisionist with a sense of its borders, it influences what occurs in the South Caucasus. That is, it is really serious. Ukraine will be, if not a black hole, then a territory generating instability. On the one hand, on the border with Europe in the former Soviet Union, on the other hand, in our direct neighbourhood. I will point out that a lot of cargo from Russia to the South Caucasus is delivered through Ukraine. This challenge remains with us, it will be necessary to deal with it for a long time.”