Russia is unlikely to improve ties with Nato

Russia is unlikely to improve ties with Nato
Member of the International Security Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexey Fenenko believes that Russia is unlikely to improve ties with Nato. The North Atlantic Alliance is going to increase its presence in Eastern Europe. The US believes that the Ukrainian crisis will damage Russia's relations with European countries.

The US and Nato have never been our friends. It's very naive to believe that it's a simple misunderstanding. If we put it plainly, we should admit that the US has always been hostile towards Russia. The main point of our bilateral relations has always been to contain each other. The military of the two states have always treated each other as possible adversaries. This fact has not changed. We still remain the United States' major military competitor.

However, the world order established in the 90s was based on a relatively weak Russia. Today Russia is much stronger. The Georgian crisis was caused by this way of thinking. Of course the US and the Nato will do their best to contain Russia's strengthening. The situation in the whole region from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea is becoming more tense. The conflict is going to escalate. From Finland to Georgia the whole region is now unstable. I believe new conflict zones are going to emerge. The US is going to increase its presence in the region. Vice President Biden openly said this during his May visit to Romania. I guess the US will first put pressure on Romania and countries which sympathize with Russia, such as Slovakia and Hungary. That's their aim. Afterwards they will probably try to persuade Finland to drop its neutral policy. Of course, this would damage Russia's position in the Baltic region. I am certain Nato is going to increase its presence in the Baltic republics, especially in Estonia. In such a case the US will be able to control the whole of the Gulf of Finland. I believe the conflict is going to escalate in this region.

Another issue is Russia's position in the Ukrainian crisis. For five years western policy towards Russia was quite moderate. The reason was our victory in the 2008 war with Georgia. As we demonstrated our readiness to start a war, we forced President Obama to start a dialogue, to launch the reset policy. The US was forced to compromise in the sphere of missile defense. In order to force the US to start talks now, we have to demonstrate an even greater power. President Obama has actually revived the containment policy. This strategy was based on the notion that the Soviet Union would not start an actual war. If the USSR had started such a war, no containment policy would have been possible. The same approach is being used today. What we have to do is to show they are actually ready for a war.

This issue should be settled within the next several months. During this period Nato is going to define its future line on Russia. The present-day situation is worse than that of the Soviet times, because during the Cold War we had a possible mediator with Nato - France. Now, after Sarkozy's rule, France is an ordinary Nato member state, which would never serve as such a mediator. Germany as a country whose sovereignty is still limited cannot play this role. During the Syrian crisis we were trying to improve our ties with the UK so that Britain could serve as such a mediator, but we failed. This means that we have no country which could serve as a mediator between us and the Americans. This situation is indeed dangerous for Russia. Our diplomats are trying to establish a French-German union, which can serve as such mediator in the Ukrainian crisis. The idea of the contact group voiced on July 2 is based on this notion, on the notion that Germany and France can serve as mediators in the Ukrainian crisis. If this scenario works, it will a much more favourable situation for us. Otherwise we will have to deal with a single North Atlantic bloc, which would be a very serious competitor in all spheres, including the military one.

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