On Sunday the Crimea will hold elections under Russian law for the first time. 12 parties will compete for seats in the local parliament. Experts predict a relatively high turnout, although they do not rule out that it will be lower than during the referendum on self-determination. Meanwhile, the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine stated that the elections in the Crimea and in Sevastopol will "form illegal authorities" and are "actually a seizure of state power." Ukrainian authorities are threatening to initiate criminal proceedings against the organizers and participants of the elections and to sentence them to up to 10 years in prison.
In Ukraine itself the parliamentary elections are going to be held within a few weeks. European politicians hope that the formation of the legislature will lead to unity and reconciliation within the country. Russian experts, however, believe that the elections could lead to a severe political struggle of all against all, and that President Poroshenko, who initiated the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada, will not achieve his goals and lose the election.
According to the director of the Centre for Political Information, Alexei Mukhin, the so-called "party of peace" is likely to create a serious foothold in the Verkhovna Rada in the future. Expert explains that the military operation in Ukraine is having less and less external supporters: "It became clear that NATO will not participate in hostilities in Ukraine, at least openly. It is clear that Ukraine's and NATO's conflict with Russia in a military sense will not occur either. This is a very important signal to those sponsoring these hostilities. Difficulties concerning financing this anti-terrorist operation already exist, and now they will be even more acute. And that's good news for those who now will build a certain configuration in Ukraine, seeking to replace it with martial law, which de facto exists now and the possible introduction of which was recently noted by Alexander Turchinov. These phantom fears that control the Ukrainian authorities are justified. The thing is that hostilities and the terrorist operation allow them to act virtually unchecked, not responding to the public for the economic, social, infrastructural destruction - the consequences arising as a result of de facto hostilities. Once the actual political process begins, I am confident that the political passions will overwhelm Ukraine, especially taking into consideration the coming election campaign."
In this regard, Mukhin suggests that "Poroshenko will fail to create a serious foothold in the Verkhovna Rada in the future, while the place of this majority is likely to be taken by the "party of peace," which will be formed by those Ukrainian politicians calling for a political resolution of the conflict. And in this regard it is understandable why the Ukrainian politicians have not entered the electoral campaign yet, he said. "They are now trying to find this trend, and as soon as they grasp it everything will fall into place."
Alexei Mukhin is certain that Poroshenko will be disappointed since "as the president, he will again remain in opposition to the Verkhovna Rada. That is why Poroshenko decided to disband the parliament - he wanted to strengthen his position there. This he will hardly achieve at this point. On the contrary, he will get some very strong opponents. This is bad news in the strategic plan for Ukraine in general, because several opposition political centers will lead to the following: it will be a political war of all against all. "
The expert believes that the task of the European Union, Russia and the United States is not to turn the territory of Ukraine "into some kind of surreal, completely destroyed area from the economic, social and political points of view." In his opinion, in order to secure this the parties "must pressure Ukrainian politicians, forcing them to start a political process. Because military thinking at this point simply does not allow (and here Obama is absolutely right, there is no other kind of behavior in Ukraine at the moment) to give them alternative means of settling the issues and challenges Ukraine is facing. If this does not happen this winter, Ukraine will cease to exist as an economic entity. "
