"Hot peace" in Ukraine

The Ukrainian authorities and militia in the south-east of the country continue to blame each other for new war crimes in the region. The situation worsened after the elections of the heads of the self-declared DPR and LPR republics. Experts’ opinions on who is interested in the continuation of hostilities in Ukraine differ.

  
According to the deputy director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belarusan Studies at Moscow State University (MSU), Bogdan Bezpalko, says that now there is no “party of peace”, neither among the Ukrainian government, nor among Ukrainian parliamentarians: "Even the Opposition Bloc, which can be named the opposition and a counterweight to the current Ukrainian nationalist establishment, also acts to some extent as a supporter of a unitary Ukrainian state, i.e. as a supporter of the "party of war".

Bezpalko is sure that Ukraine has finally lost its ability to be a subject: "Even secession from the official Minsk Protocol, which did not lead to anything except the formal conclusion of a truce that wasn’t fulfilled for a single hour, demonstrates the fact that the Ukrainian elite does not actually control these processes. Absolutely other forces control these processes. Both Ukrainian parliamentarians and Ukrainian representatives of the supreme legislative and executive powers play the role of a ball which players just kick."

The expert believes that foreign policy players are interested in forming a coalition in Ukraine: "They will make the Kiev authorities complete a coalition agreement."

As for further negotiations, according to an expert of the International Institute of Humanitarian and Political Studies, Vladimir Bruter, currently the Minsk format is generally exhausted, it seems that there will be no direct talks between the leadership in Kiev and the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and the negotiating process is not productive, as the US and Russia will not reach a consensus. "No one is really interested in an actual war. Part of the Ukrainian "war party" is interested in a "hot war," they want to constantly provoke Russia and check Russia's position on this issue. And some people in Kiev, and the majority of people in Washington are very interested in the way Russia will respond to particular challenges."

Consultations on forming a new coalition cabinet of ministers began immediately after the parliamentary elections. The Poroshenko Bloc, the Popular Front of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, which received in the parliamentary elections even more votes than the party founded by the president, as well as the Self-Reliance party led by the mayor of Lviv, securing a majority of 246 votes even without help provided by independents. Time will tell whether the coalition will be formed by these three parties or if other political forces will take part in the formation of the new ruling coalition. "I have heard such a wonderful formula that Poroshenko leads a peace party in the war and Yatsenyuk - a war party in peace. Yatsenyuk will not start a war, but he will constantly talk about any step backwards being unacceptable. Poroshenko will also talk about peace, but will not restrain those who are constantly trying to say or do something that can lead to a natural aggravation of the situation in the east of Ukraine," Bruter says.

In his view, the impact of the US Embassy on the design of the future Ukrainian government should not be underestimated. Firstly, because the embassy is very interested in a peaceful and quick formation of the new coalition. Secondly, because only the United States can call on both sides to make mutual concessions. Under this agreement, each party will have to make concessions.

With regard to participation in the process of the USA, Vladimir Bruter emphasizes that "Obama's position was originally much more peaceful than the position of his administration. However, the Democrats in the next two years will try as much as possible to distance themselves from their president, and as for the Republicans, they have always been criticizing Obama harshly. So the discourse that will serve as the American policy towards Russia will be extremely brutal. This discourse will influence the Ukrainian leadership as well."

Bruter believes that the situation is a "hot peace" and constant provocations will continue in order to show that Russia is not able to resolve this issue alone, that it is not able find support from the international community, particularly the West, and therefore must make unilateral concessions and actually leave the region. The only question is in what way the situation will be changing, while the attitude of the USA to the crisis and the US attitude to Russia will not change, at least until the presidential election."