World press on recent events in Russia, Turkey and Abkhazia

By Vestnik Kavkaza

"Russia Says Ruble Is Stable, but Economic Troubles Remain," an article with such a headline was published by the Wall Street Journal. "Russia’s finance minister declared the currency crisis over as the ruble firmed to a three-week high on Thursday, but President Vladimir Putin told his ministers they would have to work through the holidays to manage the country’s deepening economic troubles," the article reads.

"The ruble’s recovery—after a major push by the government and central bank to stabilize the market—has eased fears of a spiraling financial crisis in Russia. Yet, the sharp interest-rate increase that the central bank imposed last week to stem the ruble’s slide," the authors of the article write. The ministry has reviewed its prognosis and now predicts a 4 percent decrease in GDP if oil prices remain at the level of 60 dollars per barrel. In such a case, the state's spending should be reduced at least by 10 percent, the ministry is quoted as saying. According to the authors, even such austerity measures would not be enough to prevent a budget deficit. 

The Russian government is trying to persuade the population that the most acute phase of the financial crisis is over, the Financial Times writes. According to Minister of Finance, Anton Siluanov, the Russian rouble has reached "an equilibrium." However, the inflation rate is expected to reach 11 or 11.5 percent, the authors note. Thus, Russians may soon feel the results of the ongoing crisis, the article reads.

Hurriyet Daily News published an article by Serkan Demirtas headlined "Davutoğlu’s most important test as PM." "A parliamentary commission tasked with the inquiry into corruption claims against four former ministers postponed on Dec. 22 a key vote on whether they should be tried at the Supreme Council. The vote will now take place on Jan. 5, before the commission is set to introduce its report to the Parliament’s General Assembly, most probably on Jan. 9," the article reads. "This vote has turned out to be an important threshold for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), as there are differing views on whether or not these four former ministers should be sent before the Supreme Council. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the vote was postponed because of a split of opinion within the AKP, as there are a significant number of lawmakers who believe these ministers should be acquitted by the court," the author writes.

"There are reports that Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is also of the opinion that they should be tried at the Supreme Court, though not through Parliament’s decision but rather upon their self-determination. According to the daily Cumhuriyet, Davutoğlu held a meeting with Egemen Bağış, Erdoğan Bayraktar, Zafer Çağlayan and Erdoğan Bayraktar on Dec. 22 and asked them to announce their willingness to be sent to the Supreme Council. This claim was not denied as of late afternoon Dec. 26," the article reads. "Given this frame, the vote on Jan. 5 is going to have an important effect on Davutoğlu’s leadership. He will either stick to the internal AKP discipline drawn by Erdoğan, or he will be loyal to his life principles, which he says he will always follow," the author concludes.

Hurriyet Daily News published an article devoted to Turkey's trade ties with the Georgian breakaway republic of Abkhazia. "Georgia and Turkey have enjoyed two fruitful and eventful decades of cooperation. However, one serious point of contention for Georgia is the relationship that Turkey has with one of the occupied regions of Georgia – Abkhazia," the article begins. "Despite the fact that Abkhazia has been under an embargo on all trade and foreign economic activities by Georgia, economic and trade ties between Turkey and Abkhazia have intensified rapidly during the past few years. In 2013, the volume of foreign trade between Turkey and Abkhazia allegedly rose to $600 million, which is an unofficial, but still credible number. The majority of trade is transported through the Black Sea, with Turkish vessels leaving the Turkish ports of Istanbul, Samsun and Trabzon, and officially heading for Sochi. After reaching Sochi, or sometimes rerouting midway, the vessel then travels to Sukhumi and returns to Turkish ports with Abkhaz exports," the author writes.

"For officials in Tbilisi, these actions represent the violation of Georgia’s territorial integrity, not to mention a number of legislative acts that are important to the government, and which consider Abkhazia to be a region occupied by Russia. As vessels were seized by the Georgian navy, Georgia-Turkey relations were strained," the article reads. "For the Georgian side, the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence are extremely important, especially when it comes to the occupied regions. In a similar way, the endorsement of Georgia’s strategy toward these regions is an important principle, too. For the Turkish side, respect for the international legal principles governing the movement of vessels in the high seas is important. So is the principle of respecting the private property of the ship-owners and inviolability of the crew. If the parties ever secure an agreement, they will have to explicitly agree to uphold these principles," Hurriyet Daily News writes.

"While there are obvious positive aspects of the possible agreement – a restoration of trust between Georgia and Turkey on Abkhaz-related matters, the end to the current practice of shady economic activities, the possibility of Turkey playing a larger role in confidence building and conflict resolution initiatives in Abkhazia, and opening Abkhazia up economically and reducing its dependence on Russia – negative aspects persist, too. For Georgia, such a step could open a Pandora’s Box of various ad hoc arrangements with regard to trade between Abkhazia and European countries. It could also potentially open a contraband loophole from Abkhazia to the rest of Georgia. For Turkey, such an arrangement could risk angering the Abkhaz leadership and potentially upsetting some of the powerful diaspora representatives in Istanbul and Ankara. But this is a price tag," the author of the article writes. "Currently, it seems that Tbilisi and Ankara have forgotten about the problem of vessels and how close they were to an agreement just four years ago. If they have the will, a small push by the politicians on both sides could bring the negotiations to place the illegal trade with Abkhazia in a legal framework back on track," the author concludes.