Will the Iranian nuclear crisis be settled on time?

By Vestnik Kavkaza

This week consultations on the Iranian nuclear program are taking place in Vienna. A complete agreement with Iran should be adopted by June 30th. Diplomats of the 5+1 countries (the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) and their Iranian colleagues have not had much time to develop a document which would satisfy both sides.

Commenting on the situation surrounding the Iranian nuclear program, the Deputy Director of the Institute of Forecasting and Political Settlement, Alexander Kuznetsov, noted that progress in the nuclear negotiations started after direct contacts between the Iranian and American delegations.

Speaking about the positions of the sides, Kuznetsov thinks that the position of the Iranian diplomacy is obvious: “The position of Russia and China disappointed them a long time ago. Once Iran pinned its hopes on our countries helping them in the negotiations. But then they realized that the expectations were exaggerated a little bit. The position is absolutely definite with regards to Britain, France and Germany that they are satellites of the United States. These countries do not solve anything independently, and can even be completely ignored. But it is necessary to discuss such matters with the Americans and resolve the issues.”

Alexander Kuznetsov is sure that both sides demonstrate the political will to solve the nuclear problem: “The Obama administration and the American business community, the political circles behind it have the political will. They are interested in a phased normalization of relations with Iran, as well as an end to direct confrontation between Iran and the US. Because the political and geo-political interests of the two countries are different, that is why it is too early to affirm full normalization of relations and Iranian-American partnership. But it is necessary to clear the blockage, because such a direct confrontation with Iran is very inefficient for America.” 

“At the same time, there is the political will of the majority of the Iranian elite. It intends to improve the economic position of Iran in the world, as it supports the removal of the country from international isolation. Indeed, Iran has suffered from the economic sanctions. The country needs foreign investments and to receive advanced foreign technologies. It is not possible at this stage. We can see consensus on this issue in the Iranian elite,” the expert believes.

However, according to him, the Iranian political elite is divided into two camps concerning the problem. “Certainly, representatives of President Rouhani’s team – Rouhani, Zarif, Nahavandiyan – have gone farther. They are pro-Western people both in mentality and in their backgrounds. Many of them graduated from Western universities. They can be described as Iranian globalists. They want Iran to become a full member of the international community and develop comprehensive relations with the West. As an example, they mention Turkey, which is a member of NATO and an ally of the United States. It adheres to a relatively independent policy in the Middle East, regional policy, internal politics, and often ignores the dictates of the US. It means that such a deep integration into the world economy and global processes do not prevent Turkey from carrying out a simultaneously independent political course,” Alexander Kuznetsov explains.

Another group is the conservative part of the Iranian elite, which has a critical view on the West. “Several representatives of the higher clergy, more moderate figures, in particular Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, disagree with this position. But for pragmatic interests, directed toward improvement of the socio-economic situation in Iran, they expect success in the talks. We know that without the sanction of the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, Rouhani could not win the elections and could not go so far in the negotiating process.” 

However, Kuznetsov thinks that the main obstacle on the way to a resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem is that the sides don’t trust each other absolutely: “Both America and Iran demonstrate political will. But one of the obstacles is that there is no trust among the political elites of the two countries. In one of his famous sayings, Ayatollah Khomeini noted: ‘‘No trust in America.’’ Lack of trust is the beginning of problems.”