What summer to be expected

Springs become shorter

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The head of the HydroMeteoCenter of Russia Roman Vilfand tells about weather on Victory Days: “I have gathered statistics from 1945 to 2012 and found out that mainly the weather on May 9th was warm when temperature came close to 20 C and higher.” This year temperatures in Moscow will surpass 20 C as well. It will reach 24 C on May 10-12. In general the whole European part of Russia may experience hot temperatures. Rain is expected in the South and North Caucasus Federal Districts. In the North Caucasus republics temperatures will reach 27 C. 25-26 C will be on the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus.

Speaking about spending weekends abroad, Vilfand stated: “Hot weather is forecasted almost for all southern regions of Europe, i.e. Spain, Sicilia, the Adriatic Sea shore – temperature will be about 27-28 C. 30-32 C - for Cyprus. It will be very warm in Turkey. Really hot weather came to India and Thailand from the beginning of May. It is 35-40 C on Goa.”

According to Vilfand, in summer temperature will be equal or higher than normally: “Thus, summer won’t be cold. The warmest month will be July. Of course, this month is traditionally characterized by extreme temperature indexes, but we predict that in July and the second half of June temperature will surpass average indexes by 1-2 degrees. A fire dangerous season will come earlier in south of the Siberian Federal District because it experienced very warm weather since the middle of April. Snow melted fast, moisture vapors intensively from the soil, and fire hazards are very possible there… In the European part of Russia early fire hazards are not predicted. However, in the second half of June there will be a period with high temperature when it will surpass the norm by 4-5 degrees; and it can lead to fires.” In August temperature and moisture regime are forecasted to be close to the norm.

Climatologists and experts found out that the length of spring reduced by 1.5-2 days for 30 years. However, it is insignificant for non-experts and the average person. Spring 2013 confirms the tendency.

Vilfand says that in the North Caucasus and the South Federal Districts a maximum amount of dangerous phenomena is registered. They are connected with the vertical movement of air masses enriched with moisture, i.e. convection. In summer they causes thunder, squall winds and hail showers. But the phenomena can be predicted only several days ahead of them. This year such dangerous phenomena will definitely take place.