The events on the Black Sea Coast and near the south-western tributaries of the Kuban were categorized by the specialists as natural disasters. The atlas of natural dangers was created in the 1990s. It was done by the Emergency Ministry; this atlas contains the maps of natural dangers in Russia. On the map of the threat of possible flooding, this region is red. The frequency of floods there is once or twice a year, and the intensity may vary. River water can rise 2 to 3 metres - this is a very serious indicator.
According to Sergey Borshch, Head of Department for river and hydrologic prognosis of Russian Hydrometeocenter, on August 22, because of the arrival of a contrasting atmospheric front of a deep cyclone to the Russian south, the precipitation in the Tuapse district was extremely heavy. According to the observations of the Russian Hydrometeocenter, the level of precipitation on the Black Sea coast between Tuapse and Lazarevskoye was between 75 and 98 mm. In the mountainous regions it was
even higher, because mountains increase precipitation. There it reached 60-195 mm. The worst scenario is when it rains so heavily at night. The water reaches streams in one hour and big rivers in three hours. I repeat that it was taking place at night. The level of water in the River Nechpsukho was 500 cm above the zero of the observation station. Flooding starts at 450 cm, which means that the river was 50 cm above the danger level. It would have been bearable if not for the mountains. An enormous volume of water was coming down the mountain slopes. Therefore the water accumulates in the valleys, flooding everything that is there. This was how the picture looked in the Tuapse
district.
The branches of the Russian Hydrometeocenter in Krasnodar region - in Krasnodar, Sochi, Tuapse and Novorossiysk - received a warning 12-14 hours before the event. The interested organizations, the local authorities, were warned about the expected dangerous meteorological situation - not only heavy rains but also intensive flooding - were warned 12-14 hours in advance.
If it was only the river water without the water coming from the slopes, the flooding level would have been only 50 cm. You can imagine this. In a private house the window level is about one meter. This is how dangerous it could have been. If a house is located in a valley, it is very dangerous. The construction material also matters. The infrastructure affects the risks of destruction. A brick house is more resistant. A clay-based house is more easily destroyed. This is a traditional type of housing in southern villages. They are comfortable to live in, they are warm in winter and cold in summer, but very dangerous in a flood.
The US National prognosis center every year publishes something like a plan that they should reach in five years. According to their criteria in 2010, warning of flooding should be given 42 minutes in
advance. 42 minutes is for small rivers, like the Nechepsukho. So if we use US criteria, it should be given within an hour. Our warning was given 12-14 hours in advance, it was given on the basis of the hydrometereological models that were elaborated and function in the Russian Hydrometeocenter. First of all it is the COSMO model, a modern, European-model model. It provides not
only prognoses but also its spatial realization. If you make a prognosis on the basis of a 70 km grid, the river is lost there. COSMO models give it on the basis of a 2 km grid. The points are every 2 km. The level of awareness is much higher after using this advanced technology.
A river is a living organism that needs to be monitored, and it is necessary to timely and correctly organize anti-flooding measures. You know that one of the reasons for the devastating floods
in Krymsk was that the river bed was full of fallen trees and branches. Today the task of cleaning
small rivers belongs to the local self-government institutions. And the population should of course be very careful. People living in regions with high flood risks should be aware that heavy rains can always cause a flood. And you should take care of the area where you live.
