Alexander Gusev: "US foreign policy to become very tough"

This weekend, the US president Donald Trump, speaking with FoxNews, on the one hand, expressed the desire to get along with the Russian president Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, described Iran as "a terrorist state number one." In this regard, there were suggestions about the intention of Washington to "drive a wedge" between Moscow and Tehran and hamper their cooperation. The Director of the Institute of Strategic Planning and Forecasting, Professor Alexander Gusev, told Vestnik Kavkaza about what can be behind the US foreign policy.

- How do you think, should we trust Trump's words about his desire to reconcile with Russia?

- Trump's attitude towards Russia is determined by national interests of the US. He has repeatedly said that he wants to get along with Putin, but at the same time he keeps saying that this may not happen, recognizing that, despite his desire to improve the US-Russian relations, he does not know how to do it. Tonight Trump reportedly instructed the security services to prepare a plan of the conflict between Russia and Iran - maybe it's a fake, but the impression is that everything will not go smoothly with Donald Trump and generally with the US in the future. Perhaps, internally the new president wants to have constructive relations with us, but the political environment simply will not allow him to do it, that's the problem. Let me remind you that there is a lot of Russophobes in both the Senate and the House of Representatives of the US Congress. Therefore, we should wait and see what Trump's real steps toward Russia will be.

- In such a case, what should Russia expect from contacts with the US in the foreseeable future?

- Due to the fact that Trump will be based on his interests rather than the interests of the Russian Federation, our relations will be more pragmatic, but each country will stand by its opinion. As a politician, Trump does not tolerate any competition, he brought it with him from business, so his position on Vladimir Putin will be tough enough. We should have no illusions: Putin and Trump are the two political leaders and serious competitors for world leadership, so, of course, new Washington will not tolerate Moscow's leadership in the political aspect. And it is unlikely to improve its relations with Russia. I do not see any real prospects for this - Trump will not lift the anti-Russian sanctions. Look how he speaks of the sanctions: "I need to take a closer look, I have to weigh all this." At the same time Vice President Mike Pence says that until Russia does not return Crimea, the anti-Russian sanctions will not be lifted.

- What impact does Trump's team have on him in this regard?

- The most direct impact, just look at his environment. Pentagon chief James Mattis, known as Mad Dog, is an absolute Russophobe. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who was awarded the Russian Order of Friendship of Peoples, being the head of ExxonMobil closed 9 out of 10 projects in Russia over the past 4 years. National Security Adviser Mike Flynn is also not one of those people who can be suspected of love for Russia and the Russians. We should look closely to the new US leadership, when it becomes clear who will become Donald Trump's companions. And he is exactly the same, so his victory is not our victory.

- How do you think, what has caused such an aggressive Donald Trump's policy on Iran?

- I think it is due to the open (according to the US) Tehran's support of the Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, Washington's belief that Iran has a very strong lobby in the determination of process in the Middle East, including with regard to Israel. Also, Donald Trump's team firmly believes that Iran didn't eliminated its nuclear program and keeps its nuclear weapons and their means of delivery to the target. As you know, Tehran has missiles with a range of up to 5,5 thousand km, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Washington also claims that Iran is funding Hezbollah and arming Kurdish population in the region. All these beliefs determine Trump's position on the need for tougher sanctions against Iran. The new US administration has a very tough attitude towards Iran, and it will put pressure on the Islamic Republic in all possible ways.

- What will be immediate consequences for Iran in such case?

- The worst. The US will put pressure on both Rouhani and the Iranian government, trying to spoil Iran's life of, as anti-Iranian politician came to power in the United States. If the plan to embroil Russia and Iran is true, then it is message to Iran, not us, that Washington wants to deprive Tehran of such an important ally as Moscow. Both Pence, Tillerson and Flynn are set tough enough in relation to the Iranian nuclear program and Iran's participation in the coalition with Russia in Syria. And Mattis is a supporter of the escalation of conflicts, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.