The 12th annual session of the Valdai discussion club is taking place in Sochi. The topic of it is war and peace – the individual, the state and the threat of a big conflict in the 21st century. 130 leading experts from 30 countries are participating in the club’s work. Vestnik Kavkaza interviewed a participant of the forum, the scientific director of the German-Russian Forum, Alexander Rahr.
- In early November the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini is going to visit Georgia. The EU signed the association agreement with the country, and its integral part should have been an agreement on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. How are relations between the EU and the two other South Caucasus states – Azerbaijan and Armenia?
- I am often asked by Armenians and Azerbaijanis about the West’s view on their problems. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan has shown a decent attention, a decent interest, a political will to participate in the European Eastern Partnership Program for various reasons. Thus, the Europeans are focusing on Ukraine and Moldova – these are countries which are interested in deepening cooperation and now they are signing association agreements with the EU, which is the final goal of the Eastern Partnership Process. Azerbaijan and Armenia are not going to do that, so they are treated as the European periphery. However, if their conflict escalates, it will touch on Europe as well. Today Europe has various problems – Greece, refugees, the financial crisis, the Ukrainian crisis. Europe cannot be a firefighter everywhere. At the same time, there is hope that the South Caucasus countries will make peace.
The Eastern Partnership requires that Azerbaijan, Armenia and other members of the program adopt Western values step by step. On the one hand, Europe was dissatisfied with the elections in Azerbaijan; on the other hand, EU delegations regularly visit Baku. Azerbaijan is needed by Europe for providing its energy policy. Europe will always criticize countries where Western democracy hasn’t been installed. But these countries will never have the Western democratic system which is demanded by Europe. However, we shouldn’t make a drama of the situation and say that there is a break between these countries and Europe.
- What are the means of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in your opinion?
- I don’t see a short way of a settlement of the conflict today. The problem emerged even before the collapse of the USSR. There were various attempts by other countries to settle the conflict. We can say that it is a success that the conflict hasn’t turned into a real war. But I cannot see trust between the sides today. The conflict can be solved only if the sides are satisfied with the solution found. I don’t know how to do it now.
- What do you think about relations between Germany and Turkey?
- I think that relations between Germany and Turkey were basically normal. They were not warm, especially after Mrs. Merkel came to power, because it was explained to the Turks that while she is ruling Germany, Turkey cannot join the EU. It could be the closest strategic partner of the EU, but Turkey could not join the EU. That is why everyone was very surprised that Ms. Merkel was apparently changing her position. And she, indeed, as the unofficial leader of Europe, I do not know with whom she was consulting, but she went to Turkey a few days ago and she promised the Turkish leadership the resumption of the most serious, the most profound negotiations on Turkey's accession to the EU.
Moreover, Turkey is offered a lot of money from the EU if the country provides closure of the border between Turkey and Syria for a new stream of millions of refugees to Europe.
Merkel also has decided to do that which she did not agree to in all the previous years. Ordinary Turkish residents will be given every opportunity, maybe not immediately, to enter Germany without visas.
We have a dramatic turn of European policy towards Turkey. Turkey is the last salvation for Europe from millions of uncontrolled migrants from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe. Whether Turkey will be able to become a wall and a curtain for Europe after being rewarded is a big question.
- Do you see ways of improving relations between Russia and the West?
- I hope cooperation will be built between the West and Russia on the Syrian issue, as we have to defeat the international terrorism which threatens both Russia and the West together. If it is possible to agree on the Ukrainian issue (the conflict will be frozen and there will be no new bloodshed, if Kiev permits Donbas to be an autonomy, and Moscow agrees to extension of the OSCE mission’s activity, which is monitoring the border between Ukraine and Russia), then probably we will see a softening of sanctions. Probably, the third stage of sanctions, which was launched when the Malaysian airplane crashed, would be lifted in full. There are voices in Germany calling for the sanctions to be lifted. However, there are other European states which are ready to oppose Russia not only on the Ukrainian issue.
- Are there any cooperating projects between Germany and the North Caucasus countries?
- When Russia announced that it would try to build ski resort infrastructure in the North Caucasus, many Germany companies found it interesting, especially medium-sized businesses, which saw a chance for investments. Unfortunately, today the project has paled into insignificance, because Russia is preparing for the Football World Cup. It is also a very prestigious and expensive project. However, after that we will return to the project [the Resorts of the North Caucasus]. German business is interested in these projects. At the same time, it is difficult to speak about development of tourism in a region where counterterrorism operations are being held.
- How do you think the Iranian nuclear problem is being solved successfully?
- The Iranian problem is being solved in a positive way, it is not yet decided. Apparently, it will be possible to reach some sort of mutual cooperation and trust. Again, Iran, as a very important subject of the global international community, will be built into the system. And Iran plays a big role in the stabilization of the Middle East with Russia’s help. There were no signs of this even couple of months ago. This is all you need to know and understand, and with optimism to look at it, because that's how it was managed with Iran, this agreement brings us to the right path in Syria. Then, working together with Russia, Europe, America, maybe China, of course, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Turkey, we will be able to save the Middle East from total chaos.
