The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland finished on the day of Donald Trump's inauguration as the 45th US President. The Associate Professor of the Department of International Security of the Faculty of World Politics of Moscow State University, Alexey Fenenko, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the new international trends in politics and economics.
- Although the forum in Davos is called the economic one, big political issues are always discussed here. What was discussed the most this time?
- The sunset of the Davos forum has begun in 2009-2010. The world has been covered by financial crisis, everyone discussed whether they should pursue protectionist policies or not, but the forum in Davos existed by itself, pretending that nothing is happening. Since then the Davos forum has began to diverge from reality. The agenda of the world economy was on its own, the Davos forum was on its own. The same thing was in the beginning of 2014. The war was brewing in Ukraine, while the Davos forum discussed the improvement of the investment activity, as if nothing is happening. Only now they started to realize in Davos that the agenda of the beginning of the 1990s is diverging from reality, and that it is impossible to pretend that nothing is happening.
- What are the prospects for the abolition of the anti-Russian sanctions by new US president?
- If the US lifts sanctions, it will look like their foreign policy defeat. Everyone will immediately understand who lost the war in Ukraine. Similarly, on the part of Russia. If we go to the easing of sanctions, it will bring to the idea that Russia lost, which will only intensify the pressure on. Therefore, I think that no one will make the first step.
- How will the Chinese-US relations develop under new leadership in the White House?
- I think the Americans will play in three areas. The first - undermining the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship. Of course, Washington dislikes the fact that there is a unit of Russia and China. Even despite the fact that it is a political union, not economic, but it's there.
The second point - the Americans would undermine the financial system of China, play against it.
The third point - the Americans would build a military encirclement around China, but trying to avoid its participation, and send its representatives against China - its "junior partners" in East Asia - Japan, Vietnam. The US will also try to improve relations with the Philippines, as a last resort there are Australia and New Zealand. In short, they have a rather wide choice.