The process of delimitation of the state border delimitation with Azerbaijan caused a negative reaction among part of the Armenian public, provoking a wave of protests and an initiative to impeach Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Vestnik Kavkaza discussed the prospects for delimitation and the situation in Armenia with Alexey Naumov, an expert of the Russian International Affairs Council.
– Baku and Yerevan have completed the delimitation of the first section of the border. When can we expect the delimitation to be completed completely? How does this process relate to progress towards a peace treaty?
– The issue of delimitation and demarcation is not just for one year. On the one hand, there are many sections of the border. On the other hand, we see how difficult it was for Armenian society to complete the first stage. Nikol Pashinyan is now in a revolutionary process in many ways, since Armenian society, unlike Pashinyan, who made mistakes in his interaction with Azerbaijan and realized the impossibility of continuing the course towards confrontation and revanchism, does not perceive this well. It doesn't know that there is no alternative. Therefore, I think that the process will take a long time. Perhaps we will see the signing of a peace treaty, which will then be accompanied by a long, complex process of delimitation and demarcation.
All I can say is that as long as Nikol Pashinyan remains in power, the process will go faster. If he is deprived of this power, if we see people with revanchist views coming to power in Armenia, the process could literally turn back. The situation is still explosive. The society in Armenia has not yet fully understood that there is no alternative to the path that Nikol Pashinyan is leading it today — the path of reconciliation, compromise and, in general, concessions, since, whatever one may say, Armenia has been the losing side in two armed clashes in recent years.
– Pashinyan has already stated several times about the need to change the Constitution of Armenia in order to bring it into line with reality. Will the Armenian Prime Minister agree to this? And if the referendum does take place, what will its results be?
– Historically, Armenia has no alternative. Perhaps right now Pashinyan will not agree to change the Constitution. In general, it is very beneficial to oppose Pashinyan from a political point of view today. You have a person who is, kind of, "surrending" the country, which the opposition accuses him of, and you oppose him, gaining political points from this. So I don’t think that Pashinyan will be allowed to make changes to the Constitution now. This process is going too quickly for many residents of Armenia, who are unhappy that they need to return territories, change the Constitution, change the provisions of the Declaration of Independence. This process will be completed, but rather in the medium term.
– The Armenian opposition has plans to impeach Nikol Pashinyan. Will they be successful and how will this process generally affect the political atmosphere in the country? Is, for example, a new wave of protest activity possible?
– Nikol Pashinyan has a unique ability. He does what everyone is afraid to say. Everyone is afraid to say that Karabakh has been a yoke for Armenia for many years. He held back Armenia's development. The attempt of a futile confrontation with 10 million people in Azerbaijan drained resources, drained human emotions, and essentially set Armenia on a path to conflict that it could never overcome and that it could never win. The country was constantly preparing for a war that was obviously lost. Now, Nikol Pashinyan has revealed the secret. Armenia is tired, but it needs to save face. This is exactly what Nikol Pashinyan is trying to do now. He is trying to do what needs to be done, to fulfill the provisions of the Tripartite Statement, even though he says that it has no force, he is trying to reconcile with Azerbaijan and to make concessions. But at the same time, it is important for him to maintain the support of the Armenian society, which he has now, but this support is rather out of despair. After all, many people deep down understand that there is no other way out.
Of course, when a representative of the clergy comes to the square and says: "We will not surrender Armenia", many people are ignited by a sense of patriotism, and they go to this rally, which is suicidal in fact, because the revanchist opposition brings nothing to Armenia except pain, suffering and another lost war today. Therefore, of course, Pashinyan is not the undisputed leader of Armenia today, but his position is stronger than it seems, because he stands on the position of realism. Realism dictates that Armenia should make concessions, make compromises and accept reality.
