Günter Meyer: ‘’The US is responsible for the disaster in Syria’’

Wirtschafts Woche
Günter Meyer: ‘’The US is responsible for the disaster in Syria’’

The head of the Centre for Research on the Arab World (CERAW) at the University of Mainz, Professor Gunther Meyer in an interview to Wirtschafts Woche presented a detailed analysis of the events taking place in Syria. Below is a translation of the interview.

 - The war in Syria has reached a new level of escalation. Russians and Syrians are shelling heavily the city of Aleppo. What has happened?

 - There were two stages of the escalation. We witnessed the first one two weeks ago, when the US attacked the Syrian armed forces. The US government says it was a mistake. This is not true. The US knows the region where the attack took place in detail. It could not be a mistake.

 - What was it then?

 - The US government is divided. President Obama wants to stabilize Syria and reach a solution through negotiations. The establishment of a joint command center with Russia to fight against Daesh and Al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, was a part of the plan. But the Pentagon does not want to cooperate with the Russian intelligence, and share data with them. Therefore, I believe it is probable that the Pentagon was behind the attack.

 - Soon after that, a UN humanitarian convoy was attacked.

 - This is the second level of escalation. Washington blames Russia for this war crime. But there is no evidence. And in this case there is no logic behind this action, because neither Moscow nor Damascus benefits from this incident, neither militarily nor politically. The only party benefiting from this is rebels. Everything points to the fact that the rebels have carried out the attack, aiming to shift the blame for this war crime on Assad and blame him for the failure of the ceasefire. As the reaction of the majority of Western media shows, they have succeeded in it.

 - Since last week, Russians and Americans have been shelling Aleppo. Are we witnessing a genocide there?

 - In any case, we are talking about an extremely cruel war. The government is fighting against the rebels and kills civilians as well. The rebels, in turn, have entrenched in the residential areas and use civilians as the human shields. Both sides are acting incredibly cruel.

 - The US provides the rebels with arms and military support. Can Washington at least influence them?

 - If before the rebels were moderate, today this is no longer the case. The strongest military force in the rebel camp is Al-Nusra Front. Most the rebels achievements belongs to this group. Basically, we are talking about Al-Qaeda, that is, about the strict Islamists, and none is able to influence them.

 - Do Americans and Al-Nusra Front fight on the same side?

 - Americans, of course, deny this. But de facto it is so. One of the commanders of Al-Nusra Front even said that Washington directly provides them with the most advanced anti-tank rockets and multiple rocket launchers.

 - This means that the US supplies its enemies, Al-Qaeda, with weapons? Why would they do it?

 - Obama has only bad possibilities from which he has to choose. He does not want to lose face and let Russia decide Syria’s future. This would be the greatest defeat for him. For this reason he supports those, who fight against Assad, even the Islamists like Al-Nusra Front.

 - An idea to introduce a no-fly zone is again being considered. What will it do?

 - These discussions are absurd. Both the Assad regime and the rebels are very well armed. But it is only Assad and the Russians who can use military aircrafts and, thus, drive back the rebels. This is their great military advantage. It is inconceivable that Russians will give up this advantage. Thus, to implement the idea of ​​a no-fly zone, Americans will have to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes. In this case the United States and Russia will start fighting each other in Syria.

 - Do you think it is possible that Russia will withdraw from the war in Syria?

 - Why would Russians do this? A year ago, Assad's regime, despite the support of Shiite Iran and Lebanon, was on the verge of a defeat. Then Russia entered the war, and since then it determines what is happening there. President Putin does not want to lose again the initiative.

 - Who are the ‘good’ and ‘bad’ guys in the conflict?

 - Assad’s regime fights against ‘terrorists’ with extreme cruelty, ignoring the civilian population. But the rebels are no less violent. The problem is that in Syria we are dealing with a proxy war, that is, the ‘the war through allies’. Russians fight for Assad. Americans want to remove him from power at any const. These interests are so different that a compromise is not possible. The same applies to the Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel, which according to their own specific national interests carry out their own proxy wars against the Shiites of Iran and Lebanon. At the same time, Erdogan fights against the Syrian Kurds to prevent them from independence.

 - President Obama will put himself in a ridiculous position, if he suddenly decides to accept Assad.

 - Without any doubt. Bashar al-Assad is a bad leader. But what will happen if he is ousted? The power vacuum will be filled by the strongest opposition groups. And these groups are Al-Nusra Front and its allies. Under their authority all religious minorities, as well as the Sunnis, who collaborated with the regime, will be expelled or killed, including the Christians, who make up 12% of the population.

 - So, do you think it is better to support Assad?

 - At least during a transition period before new elections. Americans should do everything to prevent the Islamists from coming to power. But at the moment they are not interested in it, because the Islamists are fighting Assad. This is a perverse way of waging a war.

 - How can the peace process be revived?

 - The interests diverge too much in this proxy war. I do not see any chance for a peaceful settlement. On the contrary, if the media reports about the US government's plans to ship advanced anti-aircraft missiles to the rebels are true, more blood will be shed.

 - In your opinion, has the West failed in Syria?

 - Much worse. In my opinion, the US bears the primary responsibility for the humanitarian disaster, which we are now witnessing. Beginning with the intervention in Iraq in 2003, the US authorities has been making one wrong decision after the other, thus pushing the entire region into chaos.

 - Suppose Hillary Clinton is the next US president. Will she be able to finish this war?

 - Clinton quite clearly is in favor of a hard line policy against Assad. She is caught in the same trap as Obama. Only if Assad remains in power for at least some time, the war can be stopped. Only the regime can stabilize the country and keep it from plunging into the hands of the ultra-conservative Islamists, because two-thirds of the Syrian population live on the territories controlled by the regime.  As long as the United States does not accept this, the war will continue. And if Clinton supports a greater confrontation with Assad, this war will become even more cruel.

 - Does this mean that the war may continue for years to come?

 - Some observers already compare the situation in Syria to the Thirty Years' War of the 17th century. I do not see an end the this war and the killing in  the coming years.

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