The Berlin political scientist Heiko Langner told Vestnik Kavkaza about the consequences of the terrorist attacks in Paris.
- Mr. Langner, after the recent terrorist attacks in Paris a new wave of a discussion about whether Europe should receive refugees, among whom terrorists from Islamic State may or may not be, has emerged in society again. In the context of the Paris events, the new Polish government has already stated that it won’t receive migrants anymore. How might the terrorist attacks influence internal political debates about refugees in the EU, including refugees from Eastern Europe?
- The horrible terrorist attacks in Paris will lead to a toughening of security measures not only in France, but also in other countries of the EU. However, it would be an illusion to think that these steps would provide absolute protection from new attacks. At the same time, terrorist attacks cannot be connected with the refugee issue; this must not be used for manipulation of social attitudes, directing them against people who are seeking help and shelter in Germany. People from the Middle East are running from such fanatics who are hiding behind religion to achieve their terrorist goals.
However, it is true that overcoming the migration crisis is a task for the whole EU, and every member of the European Union has to participate in a settlement of the issue. I believe consistent sanctions should be launched against the EU countries which refuse to show solidarity due to their nationalistic and supremacist views. For example, allocation of financial resources by the EU for development of certain members could be connected with the readiness of the countries to welcome refugees. Those who don’t want to receive refugees should get fewer resources or not get them at all. However, today this is impossible to implement. A more effective scheme is the opposite: the countries which receive more refugees than they should receive could be partially released from the EU membership fee or they could get extra-bonuses. Therefore, the share of financial support for the countries which don’t show solidarity could be reduced. It is unacceptable to demand support all the time and disappear when your return service is needed; it contradicts the idea of European integration. Anyway, it should have consequences if we try to reach an all-European decision.
- Do you share the forecast that in the context of the terrorist attacks Angela Merkel will probably change her course on the refugee issue – as happened after the accident in Fukushima, when the Chancellor turned from an opponent into a supporter of the rejection of nuclear energy in one hour?
- I believe we shouldn’t expect a crucial turn in German policy in the refugee sphere after the terrorist attacks in Paris. These issues are not connected to each other. The German government relies on certain measures in a settlement of the crisis: acceleration of issuing or rejecting refugee status; achievement of an agreement on a refugee quota in the EU countries; strengthening the security of the EU's borders with foreign countries in favor of preventing illegal migration; a growth of financial support for the foreign countries which receive a big number of refugees – Turkey and Lebanon; a struggle against the initial reasons for the crisis. In the end, all these measures are directed at a reduction of the refugee flow. However, some of them are wrong and illogical. For example, steps on isolating the EU's borders will lead to the use of the most desperate and dangerous routes to get to the EU by people. To prevent this, it is necessary to improve the legal options for receiving refugees. Such a step could also could make the activities of criminal groups which deal with people-smuggling more difficult.
An effective struggle against the initial reasons for the crisis, it is necessary that Germany refuses to export arms to the conflict region. Germany is the third-largest significant exporter of arms in the world, and people in almost all hotspots of the world use weapons ‘Made in Germany’. It is very strange that over the past years Germany has been providing the dictatorship of Saudi Arabia with weapons. Today it is considering the possibility of exporting ‘Leopard’ tanks to Qatar. It is well known that both of these countries support Islamist terrorist groups in Syria. In the context of the absence of effective control in the sphere of detecting the final recipients of arms exports, including arms from Germany, the weapons encourage the terrorizing of the civilian populations in zones of hostilities. And so people are fleeing from there. The causes and consequences should be voiced clearly: German arms exports today lead to new refugees tomorrow!
- Germany has expressed complete solidarity with France. President Joachim Gauck speaks about a deliberate struggle against terrorism. Is this a preparation for the direct involvement of Germany in the Syrian conflict – a step which the German government has been avoiding for so long?
- Military intervention by Germany in Syria would be absolutely wrong and would end in failure. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Germany starts exporting arms to its allies in the region more intensively – to the Kurdish Peshmerga in Northern Iraq, who are fighting Islamic State.
A direct contradiction is the fact that, on the one hand, a few members of NATO are fighting Islamic State within the international alliance under the management of the USA; on the other hand, Turkey as a NATO member gives an opportunity for Islamic State to provide an oil business freely – the most important source of financing – through its territory. Despite numerous statements that it is not so, Turkey hasn’t started a real struggle against Islamic State. Overthrowing Bashar al-Assad is a more important goal for Turkey. Therefore, Turkey puts its allies on the line and fights against the Kurds, who are the biggest opponents of Islamic State on the ground. It shows that Turkey has absolutely different geopolitical interests in the region. And it would be an adventure to send Germany to war in this context. And apparently the German government knows this.
- Everybody admits that the terrorist attacks in Paris have demonstrated the need for international cooperation in the struggle against terrorism once again. Can we speak about the possibility of rapprochement between Russia and Europe on the background of a real common threat?
- It depends on the readiness of the West to get the better of itself. The fact is that it is impossible to defeat transnational terrorism without Russia. The West understands this as well, and we cannot expect targeted cooperation in this sphere. However, let’s consider that the EU will continue connecting normalization of European-Russian relations with implementation of the Minsk agreements on Ukraine, and sanctions will be lifted only after its complete fulfillment. The sanctions were senseless since the very beginning, they had no real grounds. Sanctions should be lifted as soon as possible, and opportunities for cooperation with Russia in the security sphere should be studied. It could be useful not only from the point of view of the struggle against international terrorism and the conflict zone outside Europe, but also considering the lessons of the two world wars which demolished Europe.
