Yesterday, Turkey got involved into the war on the Syrian territory for the first time over years. Ankara sent tanks and special forces to support an attack by the Syrian opposition at the last pillar of Daesh on the Turkish border. The attack was backed by the US aviation, striking Daesh targets. The head of the Heinrich-Böll Foundation in Istanbul, an expert of the German Foreign Policy Society, Kristian Brakel, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the background of the developments.
- Mr. Brakel, the military intervention of Turkey in Syria was obviously agreed with Russia, the US, and Iran. What limits did these countries set for Turkey and its military operation?
- I believe the limits which were set for Ankara are quite narrow: fighting against Daesh and creating a lock against the Syrian Democratic Forces in the Jarabulus corridor. Providing aid to Syrian militants in the Aleppo Region will be prevented, as well as further hostilities against the Kurdish group YPG in Afrin and Jazeera. It is difficult to say for how long the operation will last. I believe their goal is making Arab groups that are baked by Turkey control the region, and in a medium-term prospect, the Turkish troops will be withdrawn. At the same time, Turkey could use the space for resettling refugees there, as Ankara has been talking about it in recent years. It would be a major violation of the humanitarian law.
- Turkey’s goals in Syria are fighting not only Daesh, but also YPG. Does the Turkish intervention in Syria mean that a prospect of establishing a Kurdish state Rojava is eliminated?
- Intentions of the Kurds are highly dependent on a resolution of the Syrian conflict in general. Establishing a federation or any other type of parting the country would make the Kurds’ goal (foundation of their own state - VK) real. However, today it is too early to talk about that. As the Turkish army cannot destroy YPG, the Rojava project will remain in agenda. Perhaps, it won’t be a territorial unity, but two separate parts.
- In recent days, we can hear softer rhetoric of the Turkish government about the future of Bashar al-Assad. Has Turkey admitted that Bashar al-Assad stays in power?
- It is a crucial question: whether Erdogan has admitted that Assad stays in power or not. I don’t think he has. However, he is ready to make compromises to protect Turkey’s borders. Obviously, Ankara and Damascus are negotiating at the moment, but Turkey’s goals are difficult to combine with goals of al-Assad and his sponsors in Tehran. For example, the Turks can’t afford irritation of their Saudi partners.
- What can be internal political consequences of the military campaign in Syria for Turkey?
- The military operation will stir up the conflict with PKK on the Turkish territory; we should expect further sabotages.
- Recently, Ankara has taken the course on rapprochement with Moscow and Tehran. Do you think Turkey is turning away from the West?
- Firstly, the turn toward Russia is primarily explained by economic interests. Over nine months, sanctions have turned to be too heavy for the lame Turkish economy. Secondly, Turkey wants to send a message to the West that it has alternative, but I believe it is quite a show. Because Russia cannot offer Turkey things in the economic and military spheres that the EU and NATO can. The military presence of Russia to the north, east, and south from the Turkish borders highly restricts Turkey’s strategic space. It's not for the benefit of Turkey to turn away from NATO today.
