Lana Ravandi-Fadai: "Trump is bluffing about Iran"

US President Donald Trump, who is in Israel, said that the two countries can declare with one voice that Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon and demand that Tehran must cease its funding of terrorists and militias. Almost simultaneously, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who was re-elected for a second term, announced that Tehran will continue to help Iraq and Syria in the fight against terrorism. The senior research fellow of the Department of Near and Middle East at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Lana Ravandi-Fadai, told Vestnik Kavkaza about whether the situation in Iran and the region will change after Rouhani's re-election.

- In your estimation, to what extent were the key political forces in the country satisfied with the outcome of the elections?

- The most difficult thing in Iran is to receive the Guardian Council's approval. All presidential candidates who applied to run in elections must go through it. The Guardian Council consists of clergymen and lawyers who consider candidates for compliance with the standards of Islamic law. The Guardian Council disqualified all but six candidates out of 1636. It is difficult to pass through this "sieve", but when candidates approved, Iran's elections are very democratic. There was a tough fight. We saw the presentation of Ebrahim Raisi, the spiritual leader's sharp criticism of Hassan Rouhani. If everything depended on conservatives, then Rouhani wouldn't have won. It also shows that elections are democratic.

Rouhani has already addressed the people, thanked them. He is promising to do a lot for the good of the people, but it will be very difficult for him to fulfill many of his promises in the presence of such a strong conservative camp. But we see by the first term of Rouhani that he is trying very hard. I'm glad that he won.

Rahbar (the supreme spiritual leader of Iran) thanked the Iranian people for their participation in the presidential elections, but, unfortunately, did not congratulate the president ...

-How do you assess the outcome of the election for Ebrahim Raisi? Will these 37% of votes help him in the possible elections of rahbar?

- People do not elect its rahbar. Raisi is a new figure in politics. Even after they started promoting hum, survey results showed that only 40% of the population knows who Raisi is. This man was known only in narrow circles. Now the mechanism is launched - and the way he was presented, his program and his speeches - all this is forming his future political career. Of course, the conservatives will continue to support him. Only God knows, whether he will become a rajbar, but to date it is the first candidate for the post of supreme spiritual leader.

In 1989, when the spiritual leader Imam Khomeini was seriously ill, he named Hossein Ali Montazeri his successor. But, unfortunately, Montazeri was placed under house arrest, and Ali Khamenei became the spiritual leader. Therefore, everything can happen.

- According to your estimation, how broad was the mandate given to Hassan Rouhani by the people?

- If we talk about people who sincerely believe in Rouhani, who were initially ready to give their votes, realizing his capabilities, then their number is no more than 30-37%. Fortunately, Rouhani has secured a huge number of doubting voters.

The people's resentment was due to the fact that the situation in the country is not improving. But what could Rouhani do in the previous four years of his presidency? What opportunities he had, given the fact that the parliamentary majority consisted of conservatives? In addition, no law in the country can enter into force without the signature of the spiritual leader. All laws are sent to the Supreme Senate, then they are also considered by the Expediency Discernment Council. Naturally, it is very difficult to fulfill promises in a country with such a huge number of institutions controlling the executive power.

-How will such a result of the election affect the further Iran's internal and foreign policy, what challenges will the Rouhani government face?

- Many Saudis and Israelis predicted the victory of Raisi. They hoped that if the conservative comes to power, then Tehran would "show its true face," and then it would be possible to end it with Iran.

True or not, but it seems to me that the victory of Raisi would not bring stability to the Middle East, especially if one considers his statements about the Islamic model of civilization. Perhaps, it would not affect the relations with Russia too much, but it would cause tension in the Middle East.

- How will the Iranian-US relations develop?

- We know how Donald Trump treats Iran. He presents Iran as a terrorist state number one. Trump's close advisers - both pro-Israeli politicians and the Saudi lobby - exert tremendous pressure on him. Therefore, the US recently imposed sanctions on certain Iranian individuals and one Chinese helping Iran. It does not affect Iranian economy. Before that, sanctions were imposed against some companies, the list of which was prepared under the Obama administration. But these companies are not in Iran, but in the UAE, China, Lebanon. Therefore, to date, Trump's game can be called a bluff aimed at pressing Iran.

If Trump pursues a reasonable policy towards Iran, then no such surprises in the region should be expected. Rouhani stands for open policy, Rouhani is a person who will abide by all agreements, Rouhani stands for the liberalization of the country. Iran still fulfills its promises, but the US does not. It mainly concerns the defrosting of Iranian assets. Obama wanted the money to be returned to Iran, but Trump believes that they do not belong to Iran.

The main thing is that there are no surprises from the US.