Sergei Markov: "The level of defeat in the occupied areas of Azerbaijan is very high"

Today marks 23 years since the occupation of the Gubadli region of Azerbaijan by the Armenian armed forces. On August 31st 1993 the Armenian Armed Forces occupied 94 villages and the regional center Gubadly, after which more than 30 thousand local residents had to leave their homes. Today, IDPs are settled in 47 regions of Azerbaijan. The director of the Institute of Political Studies, Sergei Markov, told Vestnik Kavkaza about what is happening in the occupied territories and the prospects of a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

- In your estimation, what is the state of the seven occupied Azerbaijani districts, including Gubadly?

 - The problem is that we cannot assess for sure what their condition is: the access of observers to the occupied territories is restricted. There is only a general understanding that the areas are impoverished, and there is no active life, nothing happens. The Armenian population is not moving to there, because the Armenian government considers these areas to be objects for future exchange. In fact, right now everyone is waiting for when they will be finally released and handed over to Azerbaijan – only then will their recovery and reclamation begin. And their current condition is not known to anyone.

 - How difficult and costly will the restoration of these regions be after their de-occupation?

 - I believe that this will require the exertion of all the forces of the Azerbaijani society and state, as the level of defeat is very high there. Nevertheless I am sure that the people of Azerbaijan will start the restoration of its territories with enthusiasm.

 - In your opinion, is there enough understanding among the international community of what these areas surrounding Karabakh mean for Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani people?

 - According to all the international documents, not only the regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, but Nagorno-Karabakh itself are considered to belong to Azerbaijan by the international community, this is shown by the United Nations resolutions and other documents. However, world public opinion is barely aware that the seven regions around Karabakh are not the same as Karabakh itself. The situation is unique, due to the fact that the occupying side captured not only the Karabakh region, with a fairly high percentage of Armenians among the population, but also areas where the number of Armenians among the locals was minimal. Azerbaijan needs to make this fact known to public opinion, in order that not only experts and state leaders understand this, but that public opinion in most countries can understand the problem.

- How likely today is the voluntary de-occupation of the districts around Karabakh by Yerevan? Is the likelihood of its military liberation growing now?

 - I think the formation of a compromise is likely on the Kazan formula, by which Armenia returns the seven districts in exchange for the end of the blockade of the borders, demilitarization of the region and the start of negotiations on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. If no peaceful solution is achieved, a military liberation of these areas can occur with high probability, and the war will not stop there, but will inevitably start in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

 - In general, in your opinion, at what stage is the process of a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict now?

 - The process of a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is now at a very important stage of intense closed-door talks about the possibility of a large temporary historic compromise based on the Kazan formula. There are a lot of unresolved issues. The leadership of Armenia tries to resist to some extent, as it would eventually like to exchange the seven regions for the recognition of  the independent status of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan – and an exchange for the opening of the borders, demilitarization of the region and the beginning of talks on the status are seen as a defeat by them. I do not consider this as a defeat – it is an important compromise for both sides. Time is working against Armenia, because the balance of forces is changing constantly in favor of Azerbaijan.