Udo Steinbach: ‘’The consensus of the interests of five parties is necessary to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict"

Berlin hosted a conference dedicated the the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Many Western experts believe that Russian-Turkish relations directly affect the development of the conflict and the course of negotiations to resolve it. Professor Udo Steinbach, an Islamic scholar, one of the leading German experts on the Middle East, an expert on the Middle East and North Africa of the Humboldt-Viadrin School of Management, shared his point of view at the event in Berlin:

"In recent years, before the incident with the downed Russian plane, contacts between the two historical rivals – Russia and Turkey – were strengthening, especially in the economic sphere. However, the fact that relations between the two powers would turn hot became clear in 2008 after the Russian-Georgian war. Ankara was shocked by the fact that they were not able not prevent these actions of Russia. We should not forget that the position of the Abkhaz, Circassian and Chechen minorities in Turkey is very strong, as they are an important political factor in Ankara. Another big blow for Turkey was the accession of Crimea to Russia. Turkey  just had to follow these events, which touched on the Crimean Tatars as well. I think that it became a trigger for the return of the tired historical conflict in the Black Sea region back to the geopolitical scene. Finally, the conflict between Turkey and Russia was exacerbated by the conflict in Syria, where Ankara and Moscow are pursuing diametrically opposed interests. And the destruction of the Russian aircraft in Syria finally ripped off all the masks in the relations between Russia, articulating its own interests to the world once again, and Turkey, recalling the history of the Ottoman ambitions.

There is no chance of talking about a political resolution of the conflicts in the Caucasus without a settlement of the conflict between Russia and Turkey, which has a historical background. Russia should feel that its strategic interests in the region will be secured in the future. Turkey also needs to get a signal that Russia's interests in the region will not be implemented at the expense of Turkey’s. The fears of the Turkish side about the Bosphorus and Dardanelles being under someone else's control should also be understood.

The European Neighbourhood Policy is also extremely painfully perceived by Moscow. Moscow also sees the economic expansion of the EU to the east in the political arena – and the EU and NATO are the last things the Kremlin would love to see near its borders, especially after NATO's infamous eastward expansion.

The resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict requires a consensus of interests of at least five sides – Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia, Turkey and the EU. Each party must at the same time feel that its interests are not being violated. And bringing this ‘pentagon’ to a common denominator is the main challenge on the way to resolving the conflict."