Vitaly Naumkin: "Militants will either leave Iraq for Syria or lay low"

How will the situation in Iraq change after the liberation of the ISIL "capital" Mosul by the Baghdad army and Kurdish militias? How are breaking agreements between Russia and the US to coordinate military operations in Syria affecting the settlement of Syrian crisis? Does everything that happens now in these two countries really bring closer the elimination of international terrorism in the Middle East? The director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Vitaly Naumkin, answered Vestnik Kavkaza’s questions on the hottest topic of this month.

- There operation of Iraqi troops and Kurdish militias to liberate Mosul from ISIL militants is underway. In your estimation, how will the restoration of Iraqi control over Mosul change the balance of forces in Baghdad's struggle against ISIL?

- Of course, the Mosul offensive will have a significant impact on the situation. There is no doubt that the Iraqi forces, backed by the international coalition, as well as the Kurds and the Shia militias, in some way will be able to establish control over the city. But they are likely to fail in achieving complete victory over ISIL. There is every reason to believe that the coalition forces, primarily the US, negotiate with militants in Mosul through intermediaries, so that they could leave the city through certain corridors, and this part of militants, most likely, will leave not only for Raqqa, as most observers think, they will resettle in the Sunni tribes, from which they join ISIL, or in sympathetic to them. The Sunni tribes guarantee the protection of these people, and for the coalition and the Iraqi army it is very important not to make such tribes into enemies, because the defeat of ISIL should not look like a defeat of the Sunni population. Probably, someone will catch the militants in tribes, but it is also possible that they will lay low, and it will be difficult to predict how they will behave in the future. Of course, some of them will go to Syria, Raqqa, some of them will be destroyed in Mosul. The main thing now is to ensure evacuation of most part of civilians, which are being used as human shields in order to minimize casualties.

- How will the withdraw of militants from Iraq to Syria affect the Syrian crisis?

- There will be strengthening of ISIL in Raqqa, the second "capital" of terrorists. At the same time,  Raqqa is a rather limited battleground, which can be blocked by the Syrian army, backed by its allies. If we assume a similar operation to liberate Raqqa and push militants back into Iraq, you get a certain flow of terrorist forces here and there, or, which is more likely, their displacement to the west, to the Idlib area, or to the north, to ​​Turkey.

- During the current period of the apparent rupture of cooperation between Russia and the US on Syria there are many different doubts and fears about the future of the Syrian settlement. In your estimation, what should we be afraid of and expect in Syria now?

- Contacts with Russia have not been broken completely, they are still continuing, and there are chances to recover arrangements. At the same time, there are different interests and approaches, considering which, it is difficult to talk about any serious cooperation now, given the state of the Russian-US relations. Nevertheless, I would not speak about the complete collapse of this cooperation. Maybe they should try to reach an agreement, such attempts have already been made, it does not matter that they were unsuccessful, but it can be assumed that they will continue.

- What are the real prospects for a Syrian settlement in the current situation?

- It is difficult to give forecasts for the protracted, difficult and complex Syrian crisis. It all depends on too many factors, both global and regional: on Turkey's position, on the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the inter-Syrian balance of powers, on the military, political and economic factors, on how these factors will interact with each other.

- What diplomatic and military strategy should Russia use in the Syrian conflict in this regard?

- I think that Russia has carried out very successful work in these two projects, in two tracks - diplomatic and military. Our military is engaged in problems unusual for them, for example, they provide humanitarian access and the delivery of humanitarian assistance, reconcile the conflicting parties, negotiate with tribes and factions. I think that such a synergy of diplomatic and military activity creates a good basis for a possible settlement of the crisis, but not everything depends on Russia.

- How does the Euphrates Shield operation affect the prospects of settlement of the Syrian crisis?

- Today, Turkey is one of the major players in Syria, it has its own calculations and views on the situation related to, first of all, with the confrontation with certain Kurdish forces, which are regarded as anti-Turkish and even terrorist, but not anti-Assad, anti-government rebel groups. Therefore, Turkey continues to support Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and other organizations. Until Turkey does not start changing its policy, its role in the settlement of the Syrian crisis is unlikely to be constructive. Since it is in the interests of Turkey to restrain the Kurds, it created a kind of de facto security zone on its borders in Syria, which is illegitimate in fact, but the other players allow it: Ankara appears here as the initiator of certain unilateral actions, which are taken by other parties, including Americans.

- How will the Syrian crisis change if the terrorist factor is eliminated?

- Even if we start with optimism, inherent in your question, the path to the settlement will still be in the division of power between the current government and a certain part of the opposition. Syrian society is split, and therefore, it is necessary to consider interests of all those who have different views on the future of the country, with the exception, of course, extremists and those who rely on the use of weapons and violence in solving political problems.