Yuri Rogulev: "The United States has nothing to sacrifice in relations with Russia"

By Vestnik Kavkaza
Yuri Rogulev: "The United States has nothing to sacrifice in relations with Russia"

Today, the United States first gave Russia the data on the deployment of the Syrian troops under the control of the US opposition. Although a preliminary analysis of the data showed that the delineation of the moderate opposition and terrorists has not been conducted yet, the experts have started to talk about the establishment of the real cooperation between Moscow and Washington in the military sphere. However, almost at the same time the US Congress appealed to President Barack Obama with a proposal to impose sanctions on Russia, due to the fact, that the country, in their opinion, is behind the hacker attacks on the US government organization. In a situation of having this kind of the political pendulum, it is difficult to bring the Russian-American contacts to the normal level. The director of the Roosevelt Center for the Study of US at the M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Yuri Rogulev, told in an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza about the state of relations between Moscow and Washington on the eve of the US presidential election.

- Will the result of the presidential election affect the US policy toward Russia, as it is suggested by many Russian experts?

- I think it may affect only cosmetically, in terms of creating some atmosphere in the Russian-American relations. And the atmosphere can be improved, and maybe worsen. But if we talk about some fundamental decisions, you need to remember, that after all, the US foreign policy, especially policy on Russia is a bipartisan policy. The important role is played by the US Congress.

- Does the Congress plays the main role and is the figure of the President secondary?

- It is not secondary. Under the constitution, the president has the authority to negotiate and conclude international agreements. But the most important treaties must be ratified by the Congress. For example, the president has the opportunity to decide on the use of the armed forces abroad for a month or two, but the use of them for a long time requires the approval of the Congress. But it is impossible to do without the approval of the Congress, especially when it is related to the release of certain funds or the adoption of some decisions. Therefore, the President is not a minor figure, but in the US there is no less important institution in the form of the Congress, independent from the president, with whom it needs to establish cooperation, otherwise he has little to do.

- Who determines American policy towards Russia?

-Equal responsibility and equal influence both of the Congress and the president.

- What will be the policy of the USA of Trump and Clinton?

- Clinton takes more aggressive and offensive position during the election campaign. She seeks to emphasize that the United States will strongly defend their interests. It is easy to say how it will be in reality,  due to the fact that she was a very prudent and careful person. It is unlikely that Clinton would be a subject to some kind of momentum and short-term solutions, but overall it will be a tough stance against Russia. As for Trump, he is much less susceptible to the stereotypes of the Cold War. He speaks as a simple man, from the point of view of the common sense, and he puts the question correctly - it would be good for the US, if the relations with Russia would be normal, but not hostile and competitive. In this sense, such a position resonates with voters. And it would be very well, if we could predict what will happen after Trump comes to power. But we do not know his real program, we do not know which team he can bring with him. This man is not predictable, and although Trump more adequate ideas, anything can happen after he comes to power.

- What is Washington's attitude toward Moscow? How much is the Russian theme important in the foreign and domestic policy?

- The relations are now at the minimum level. We have a very low turn over, which does not correspond to the economic potential of the two countries. The United States have a policy of sanctions against Russia, which prevents the positive development of the economic ties. As for the political relations, they overlap in some aspects, but the cooperation is very difficult even in the fight against terrorism. The relationships require a completely different approach. In the near future, they are unlikely to become worse. There is no place to change for the better  as well, it requires a lot of time and effort.

- What needs to happen in the United States, so Washington's attitude toward Moscow will improve?

-It is difficult to talk about the improvement for two reasons. Firstly, Russia is the only country that has the ability to destroy the US in military terms, the military potential of Russia is growing recent years, and the US is aware of it. This makes the United States treat Russia with a great caution. The second, the United States does not depend on Russia, and Russia is not economically dependent on the US. This is not the same as the relationship with China, where there is a huge turnover, a huge amount of goods produced in China are sold in America. There is nothing like that with Russia. The United States has nothing to sacrifice in the relations with Russia. Whether the relations are deteriorating or improving, the US economy is not affected much. Therefore, there are no incentives to improve the relations.

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