Askar Akayev: “Regional integration will take CIS countries to the world level”

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Academic Askar Akayev was the leader of Kyrgyzstan for 15 years, fleeing the country after the so-called Tulip Revolution of 2005. After just 9 years, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych shared his fate. Moving from Kyrgyzstan, Akayev continued his science research, becoming the head of a science group at the Moscow State University's Prigozhin Institute of Mathematical Studies of Complex Systems. He works on forecasts of economic development, including crisis forecasts. This is why Vestnik Kavkaza has not only talked about the situation in the post-Soviet space with Askar Akayev, but asked about the scientist’s opinion about the Russian economy as well.

- Askar Akayevich, what is your forecast for development of the Russian economy, especially after the annexation of Crimea?

- Russia has all the resources for dynamic development: natural and most importantly human resources. Russians are well-educated, there is a tremendous human potential, outstanding Russian science, so Russia has all the conditions, all chances for a more dynamic economic progress. I believe that Russian economy should develop at a rate of 7-8% be cause the world, with account of even undeveloped countries, including African states, is moving at a rate of 3% a year. The whole world, including the rapidly developing economies of China and India. The whole! China, India are developing at a rate of 8-9%, while Russian economy should and can develop at a rate of 7-8%. But in order to achieve that, it needs a new industrial policy, a strong, efficient industrial policy.

- How would you evaluate the prospects of integration on the post-Soviet space?

- There is no alternative to integration today because globalization is going all over the world. One of the patterns of globalization is regional integration. We see that all Europe is integrating and they want other countries in their orbit. Now, for instance, they are struggling to get Moldova, Georgia and other countries in their orbit. This is why Russia and Russian neighbours, post-Soviet republics, have no other choice than to closely integration on the economic, political, all aspects. Only strong regional integration will bring Russia and CIS states to world-level development.

- What future of the Customs Union, Eurasian Union can you see after the events in Ukraine?

- I am confident that the Customs Union will develop regardless of what happens in Ukraine. Of course, it is very important for Ukraine to join the Customs Union because the Ukrainian economy would gain a new course. It is in a catastrophic state at the moment. The Ukrainian economy is alien for Europe. European economy is not integrating that of Ukraine, it will repulse it as an alien element. Regarding further steps, I see that firm Eurasian integration is possible on the basis of the Customs Union in the future, a firm Eurasian Union will be formed.

- What are the prospects for cooperating with South Caucasus states?

- Things are certainly a lot more complicated with South Caucasus states. Though we see that Armenia is joining the Customs Union, Armenia has its own special path. Concerning Georgia, Azerbaijan, they probably have their own vector of development. I see no opportunities for them to be in the Eurasian integration orbit.

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