The well-known German political scientist and expert Alexander Rahr gave an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza. He touched on the full spectrum of political themes between Russia and the Caucasus, as well as basic geopolitical aspects of the current world. We publish the sixth part of the interview, dealing with current situation in Russia’s North Caucasus.
- Another problematic area of the Greater Caucasus is the North Caucasus. Why do you think it’s still such a troubled region? What is the main mistake of Russia’s policy there? And is it Russia’s fault or do some external powers contribute to such a situation?
- I think it’s Russia’s fault, as well as that of other powers, as you said. You know how many ethnic groups who have been at war with each other for centuries live there. Some of these conflicts are between indigenous peoples of the North Caucasus, but Russia fails to stabilize the situation. But the hardest problem of the North
Caucasus, as I see it, is the incredible level of corruption. The corruption goes deep within the ruling elite of the region, the so-called clans, but it is also characteristic of Russian bureaucrats supervising Caucasian authorities. Russia allocates enormous sums of money into the region, but it just can’t get the infrastructure right.
As for the external factor, it is not the West, as it was back at the time of the First Chechen campaign. Today it’s the Islamic factor that has the greatest influence on the North Caucasus. International terrorist organizations finance extremist groups of Russia’s Caucasus. However, I would distinguish between the Eastern and the Western parts of the North Caucasus. The Western part is more stable, the general population gets a decent part of Russia’s donations. Besides, the percent of the Russian population is high there. I believe it is possible that the Sochi Olympics will boost this region’s tourism and recreation potential, thus further stabilizing the economic situation. Of course, Russia will first have to allocate enormous sums of money there, but still. The Islamic influence isn’t too strong there, so economic means should be enough to gradually stabilize the situation. The Eastern part of the region is quite a different story: the Islamic element is very strong there. As far as the global tendencies go, extremism is only about to grow. It is this type of misinterpreted Islam that is leadin a war against Western globalization, and the North Caucasus seems to be very susceptible to this harmful influence.
There is, however, another theory, which states that the global threat of Muslim terrorism has disappeared with Bin Laden, and that all the doom-mongers were wrong for suggesting the possibility of a ‘Third World War’ between Western and Islamic civilizations. This theory suggests that Muslim countries will gradually become more democratic and thus economically flourishing, and this will eliminate the terrorist threat forever.
