Expert on the countries of the Caspian region and Central Asia, Doctor of the Free University of Berlin, Bakhruz Abdolvand, has given an expanded interview to the head of the VK European bureau, Orkhan Sattarov. We publish the second part of the interview devoted the policies of Turkey and Iran concerning their neighbouring countries.
Question: Azerbaijan became the second ( or the first, if taking into consideration only internationally recognized states) Turkish prime minister Erdogan has made a state visit to Baku after his victory in the elections. During a joint conference with President Aliyev, Erodogan demanded that the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, should apologize for his statements containing direct claims on Turkish territories. In this context, is a revival of Armenian-Turkish rapprochement possible from your point of view?
Answer: Turkey is a member of NATO, while Armenia is virtually protected by the Russian Federation. Due to historical experience, relations between Ankara and Yerevan won't normalize in the foreseeable future. Although sometimes meetings and diplomatic negotiations are held, the matter of the Genocide of the Armenians, denied by Turkey, will remain a heavy burden in mutual relations. Nevertheless, economic interests are of high priority for Turkey. In Yerevan many shops sell «Made in Turkey» products. Thus, it is obvious that, despite political contradictions, business contacts between Turkish and Armenian businessmen exist. Dialogue between the two states was just a peaceful gesture from both parties. It failed for a different reason than the claims on the Turkish territories declared by the Armenian president. More plausibly, the reason was that Turkey has offered to create a commission of historians for studying the «pogroms», which the Armenians call «genocide». The present diplomatic exchange of blows should be considered a continuity of history exclusively. Any future has long past. This rule is applicable to relations between Turkey and Armenia.
Question:Why is Washington so interested in normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan? What geopolitical benefits will the USA gain?
Answer:Turkey is a member of NATO. Due to its geographical proximity to the Caucasus, it is an irreplaceable link for the countries of the Caspian region and their integration into the western system and markets. The state of affairs in Georgia and its recent war with Russia testifies that in the case of Russian aggression the only way of protecting Georgia is to use Turkish infrastructure.The example of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline shows that this is simply unimaginable without Turkey. Besides, Turkey is especially important for the USA as a base for restriction of Iranian influence in the region. Meanwhile, there is a contract between Russia and Armenia concerning protection. The Armenian government is ready for partnership with Russia because of its fear of Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey. If it turns out that relations between Ankara and Yerevan normalize, the influence of Russia will be minimized, and Armenia will get more space for implementation of its foreign policy. Proceeding from this position, the USA seeks to improve relations between Turkey and Armenia.
Question: The question of cancelling the visa regime between Turkey and Azerbaijan is still on the agenda of Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Iran has unilaterally cancelled the visa regime with Azerbaijan and expects similar actions from Baku and there is not the least reason for Azerbaijan not to take this step. Why doesn't Baku want to cancel the visa regime with Iran?
Answer: The majority of Azerbaijanis are Shiites. The most important religious centers, such as Meshed, Gum, Teheran, Shiraz etc, are situated in Iran. With the visa regime cancelled, trips to Iran will become easier and more Azerbaijanis will go to Iran. Contacts with various religious institutions will be intensified. Meanwhile, the Islamic party of Azerbaijan has emerged. It is developing constantly and has branches on the territory of Azerbaijan - in Baku and Ganja as well as in Iran – in Tabriz and Ardebile. The Islamic Party's development testifies to the existence of intensive contacts between the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan and Iran and attempts by Iran to expand its influence in Azerbaijan. Therefore the Azerbaijani government is afraid of cancelling the visa regime and tries to maintain it, while Iran has unilaterally cancelled it. That is why the Azerbaijani government has found itself in a difficult situation, because in recent years it rendered support to Azeri separatists in Iran, while Iran supports Shiite organizations in Azerbaijan which have become very active. Currently three religious leaders are imprisoned in Baku. This shows that the tactics of Teheran have been detected by Baku. The diffidence of the Azerbaijani government grows. By all appearances, the influence of Islam is more large-scale than an ethnopolitical toolkit for the maintenance of the balance of forces. This influence is so strong because in Iran the religious elite possessing political power are generally of Azerbaijani origin. It controls the state.
Question: How would you comment on the statement made by the Iranian general, Firuzhabadi, which has caused a diplomatic row between Iran and Azerbaijan?
Answer: Lately we've observed mutual attacks from the Azerbaijani and Iranian elites. While the lieutenant-general of the revolutionary guard, Firuzhabadi has threatened that the Azerbaijani government may share the destiny of Mubarak, because it is getting closer to Israel and suppresses Islamists in the country (the issue of prohibition of head scarves at high schools, arrests among Islamists), the Azerbaijani government accuses Iran of intervening in internal state affairs. Shiite groupings are really supported by Iran financially, morally and materially. It is also assumed that these groupings receive support from Iran in the form of military education, while Baku protects Iranian Azeri separatists in Baku. Besides, the Azerbaijani government accuses Iran of supporting Armenia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. These contradictions show themselves in the debate concerning the cancellation of the visa regime in Azerbaijan as well, while Iran has already cancelled it unilaterally. President Aliyev has to deal with several conflicts simultaneously, which make the situation even more complex. His desire to create regional balance in foreign policy will have a negative influence on the system in Azerbaijan in the long-term. Azerbaijan is unable to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem by military force. It is criticized by the Islamic fundamentalists supported by Iran. Currently, there is a policy of re-islamisation in the Islamic world, while president Aliyev considers Azerbaijan a secular state and wants to turn to Turkey, disregarding the fact that Turkey itself is islamized . In this situation, contradictions between religiously motivated Iran and pro-western and secular Azerbaijan emerge. These contradictions show themselves in mutual verbal attacks at the level of the elites.
Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of VK
