Fiona Hill, an expert on Russia and the states of the former Soviet Union from Brookings Institution contemplates on ways of Nagorny Karabakh conflict settlement.
- What is the main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict?
- The main reason that there is no resolution of the conflict is that the cooperation from both sides, both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and perhaps especially of Azerbaijan are not ready for compromise.Both of the leaders have not been able to show the idea of a compromise to their populations. It is the political situation inside of the countries that is really blocking any kind of settlement at this stage so it is better for the both presidents that there is no resolution at this stage.
- So there is actually no way for a compromise nowadays, yes?
- Not at the current juncture. You know, as Russians say, in principle there can be a compromise, but under current political situation there really is not.
- In this context is there a possibility for full-scale hostilities to be resumed?
- I think it is a real risk of miscalculation, as far as we continue to see violence, the exchange of fire, sniper cups, regular killings of soldiers on both sides, there is really a risk of an escalation, a miscalculation and as a result of this the resumption of violence. It is helped by the rhetoric, by what the presidents say in the public contact. So I think most of the experts, most of the people who work on this issue are very concerned.
- Do experts think that there are any changes in the current political agenda, in Russian foreign policy because of the new elections and maybe the new government that can change the situation in Nagorny Karabakh between the two sides?
- Well, it is possible, I would not say that it is probable and we have to see what happens in the Russian elections and how the new government is formed , but the fact the president Dmitry Medvedev made a good effort, it really seems like a very sincere effort to find a way of resolution and put a lot of time and energy into this but as we see he did not succeed because the two presidents were not ready. It is likely that even the president Putin and the new Russian government would have the same difficulty. Sargsyan and Aliyev are not ready and not able, they are not just ready but not able in a larger sense to try to be able to do this and Russia cannot impose the settlement from outside, and more generally all other international actors cannot impose the settlement. It is not demanded. It has been very clear that it is not going to be possible. Russia wants to see the settlement and Dmitry Medvedev made an effort, it was a very promising sign, but he still did not succeed. Most problems have ground in the region. Just from the international prospective.
- Do you and other experts think that Azerbaijan and Armenia will face full-scale warfare in the nearest future, I mean nowadays, not in two years?
- I think it is possible, it is a potential, I am not saying that it is going to happen for sure, there is a risk of miscalculation. And the issue of compromise is just about whether the two presidents are ready to take the steps, it is about the domestic politics in Armenia and Azerbaijan that it affected by the international environments but ultimately it is about their politics and their calculation on whether they can really afford to make a compromise. Does it make sense to you?
- In the case of the attempt to settle the conflict and to stop the hostility by those two presidents there is a chance to reach a peaceful conclusion for the conflict?
- There is, but they have to make some tough decisions. I think everybody knows what the basis for compromise is, but the question is whether the domestic politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan permits it, whether Sargsyan and Aliyev personally feel that they have enough of what Americans call a political capital, whether they have enough legitimacy and enough political strength to be able reach that compromise. I think it is all really about the decisions that Sargsyan and Aliyev have to make personally.
VK reference:
In addition to this interview several things must be said to emphasize the most important points of the problem – factors that, according to Fiona Hill's comments on the Helsinki Commission Reports, determines the current situation. These factors are influencing all sides of the conflict and are vitally important for further predictions about the development of the situation. First of all, a great change can be seen in the soil of the Karabkh conflict – in the two countries a new generation has grown up without any experience of dialogue with each other –on opposite sides of the line. These young people have experience, feelings and understanding of the conflict extremely different from the previous generations. This is a new and dangerous phenomenon that can break the fragile balance. Secondly, domestic politics, both in Armenia and Azerbaijan, determine the problem's solution. We can sometimes see that both leaders tend to use rhetoric about the conflict to prove their legitimacy, rather than find ways towards a real settlement. Thirdly, the method of international negotiations that was considered to be the best answer to the violence of the Karabakh conflict is not working effectively. The international participants are all developing their own views on the problem and its solution, whether the conflicting states are trying to turn international interest and participation to their own domestic benefit. These three problems - of international methodology, internal politics and a new social soil - are delaying the end of the conflict and are bringing new and dangerous features to it.
Elisey Dmitriyev to VK
