Alexander Rahr: “Russia is wrong thinking that Ivanishvili is a ‘cater-cousin’ just because ‘Ivan’ is a part of his surname”

Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK

The head of the Russian-German Forum, Alexander Rahr, comments on the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia.

-          Mr. Rahr, what will be the political future of Mikhail Saakashvili and his party after the parliamentary elections? Can we state  the end of Saakashvili’s epoch?

-          I think Mikhail Saakashvili considers the variant on changing the constitution at the last moment and following Putin’s path – remain in office through improvement of the premier’s position, i.e. through turning Georgia into a parliamentary republic. Does he have time for it? I don’t think so.

-          Considering the fact his party actually lost the elections, there are few chances that he will manage to fulfill this scenario.

-          Yes, that is why I say “he considers the variant,” but in fact it is impossible. I believe he must realize that democracy requires certain rules: after second term a political career ends in “pure” democracy. I don’t see other opportunities for him, except for anti-constitutional or manipulations with the constitution.

-          How can Georgian Dream’s victory in the parliamentary elections influence Georgian-Russian relations? Is approaching coming?

-          If anybody in Russia thinks that Ivanishvili is a ‘cater-cousin’ just because ‘Ivan’ is a part of his surname, he or she is wrong. I have been to many countries neighboring Russia in recent days, and I realized that the post-Soviet elites in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the South Caucasus republics don’t want to return to a Russian orbit. They are interested in pragmatic economic cooperation, but not in political unions, at least in the near future. It is difficult to predict what will happen in 20-30 years.

As for your question, accession of Georgia into the Eurasian Union is impossible, notwithstanding who rules the country. Georgia is directed at the West, as well as Azerbaijan. I think the most positive and best variant of developments for Russian-Georgian relations would be establishing of relations similar to Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation. The only thing that might change under President Ivanishvili is that the Georgian authorities might lose enthusiasm on reunification with South Ossetia and Abkhazia and silently admit separation of these territories after the war which was started by Saakashvili. I assume that a part of Georgian elite will put the blame for losing these territories on Saakashvili. He understands it. It is one of the possible scenarios. In general I see no opportunities for a breakthrough in relations between Russia and Georgia under a different regime.