Vitaly Naumkin: “Many refugees won’t come to Nagorno-Karabakh before a settlement of the conflict”

Interview by Maria Sidelnikova exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The head of the Oriental Studies Institutes of the RAS, Vitaly Naumkin told Vestnik Kavkaza about influence of the Syrian conflict on the Caucasus states.

-          Vitaly Vyacheslavovich, how does the Syrian conflict influence the South Caucasus, including the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh?

-          First of all, it influences through the Armenian factor. There are about 150,000 Armenians in Syria. The Armenian population appeared in the area of heavy fighting, especially in Aleppo, which is called an Armenian city by some people. Today there is a powerful migration pressure: many people are leaving the country or would like to leave it because it is impossible to live there. Aleppo is a ruined city where people cannot stay. These people need somewhere to go. Armenian refugees may feel uncomfortable in neighboring Muslim countries. The West cannot welcome everyone. Some of them want to stay because their families have been living there for centuries. One of destabilizing moments is what I have seen in Turkey where some politicians and the mass media spread rumors that Karabakh and the occupied Azerbaijani territories are being populated by Armenian refugees. I tried to find out the truth at the meeting with Mr. Mirozyan, the foreign minister of Karabakh. It is no secret that our Karabakh companions stated that the number of refugees who came to Karabakh was less than 400. It is not about massive populating of the territories – many refugees won’t come to Nagorno-Karabakh before settlement of the conflict. However, it is a fact that the situation is used for stirring up the situation.

-          How will a further escalation influence the situation in Iran and Turkey?

-          Today there is a serious clash in the public opinion of Turkey. A lot of people do not support the governmental policy on the Syrian crisis and think that the government of Davutoglu and Erdogan has made a big mistake by taking such a tough position toward Assad. These people are from the Republican Party, the opposition, the Alawi minority, some Kurds, and others. That is why we can see a political clash in Turkey, and it is not beneficial for settlement of the problems. The conflict in Syria influences destabilizingly on all neighboring countries.

-          What about Iran?

-          This conflict doesn’t influence Iran directly, but it is heating the atmosphere over Iran because Tehran supports the Syrian regime. Those who want to overthrow Assad’s regime see a powerful force in Iran and try to worsen the situation in Iran by escalation of sanctions, political and economic pressure on the country.

-          What do you think about the visit by Armenian President Serge Sargsyan to Moscow? How will his reelection influence Russian-Armenian relations?

-          There can be no two opinions. I think this visit was a symbol of maintenance of the strategic union between Russia and Armenia. There were different rumors in the mass media that this course would be changed. I don’t think it will happen. The problems of economic strategic cooperation were in focus, even though we don’t know the details. Whether cooperation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict will be achieved, time will tell. At the moment it is difficult to predict when the conflict could be settled. I am not optimistic in this issue.