Martin Sieff on resolution of the Karabakh Conflict

Interview by Anna Demchenko exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The leading analyst of The Globalist, Martin Sieff, told Vestnik Kavkaza about chances for settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, considering appointment of James Warlick the co-chairman of the Minsk Group of the OSCE from the U.S.

- Obama has praised Warlick, saying that "his recent appointment is an important sign of the United States' strong and unequivocal commitment to assisting the parties to achieve a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict." Why was he appointed as the US co-chairman at the OSCE? What in his personality and background indicates that he will find a way out of the current situation with the negotiations?

- Mr. Warlick is an extremely experienced figure and his whole track record has been in the area of constructive negotiations. This is extremely important. The U.S, if under President George W. Bush and even when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, have an unfortunate track record of imposing its own dictats on the organization for security and cooperation in Europe (the OSCE). The most striking example of this came at the OSCE summit in Kazakhstan, Astana, in December 2010, almost three years ago, when then-Secretary of State Hilary Clinton simply refused to take on board or cooperate with a Russian-crafted initiative. That would have put more resources behind OSCE efforts to combat transnational crime across Eurasia, Clinton’s position was that the OSCE should be primarily an organization to promote democracy in American terms across Eurasia and it should not become a more active player on the issue of transnational crime. This was a very unfortunate position. And it was not negotiated. It was a dictat of Secretary Clinton. However, now we have John Kerry as U.S. Secretary of State. And he has sent very different signals to Moscow, Beijing and other capitals in the world. John Kerry was a professional diplomat and a very successful one in the U.S. Foreign Service decades before he became a U.S. senator. He sat in the senate with distinction for more than a quarter of a century. And he’s brought those qualities of a team player, the qualities of a diplomat, the qualities of a figure who regards experience as important, who regards diplomacy as important, who regards it important to listen to what the other parties have to say, and try to negotiate agreements that will fit their concerns as well. This is also behind his clear recommendation and choice of Mr. Warlick to co-chair the OSCE. And this has very positive implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and for other disputed issues in the Caucasus.

- In what ways do you expect the USA to optimise efforts aimed at a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement?

- Such issues can only be peacefully resolved when the United States and Russia, together, line up their appropriate sides and supporters and work constructively together, even when there is no guarantee of full success, because the issues involved are so far-reaching  and the differences between, for example, Armenia and Azerbaijan positions on Nagorno-Karabakh are so great. But when the U.S. and Russia work constructively together, good things happen. Mr. Warlick’s appointment is a strong indication that President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry want good things to happen in result of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and in improving the effectiveness of the OSCE and in improving U.S. and Russian cooperation in the OSCE.

- What can be expected from the visit of Warlick to Baku, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh?

- I think there are further implications of this, and that is that when Mr.Warlick  flies to Baku; he will certainly be giving messages of U.S. reassurance and support to the government of Azerbaijan, President Aliyev. The U.S. has very good influence there and wants to keep influence in Baku, but he will also bring another message, which is that Baku must negotiate constructively with Armenia and the United States expects it to; and the United States wants to work with Russia for a peaceful resolution of this issue. Now the Azerbaijani response to this will be very important, because while they can be securing U.S. support, they also have to realize that they do live in the region and that these issues in the long run need to be peacefully reconciled and solved to the greater good and satisfaction of everyone concerned.