Boris Dolgov: "President Mursi’s resignation in Egypt is Assad’s victory"

Interview by Maria Sidelnikova, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan announced political changes aimed at an improvement of life of ethnic minorities. Experts state that the Premier’s initiatives are targeted at integration of the Kurds into the political process. Boris Dolgov, expert of the Institute of Oriental Sciences of the RAS, told Vestnik Kavkaza about the situation in the region.

-  How do you assess the Kurdish program proposed by Erdogan this week?

- This is a positive step towards a solution of the Kurdish problem, particularly in Turkey. But here, I would caution against too bright prospects in respect to the proposals. First, I’d like to remind you that at the moment the Kurdish question is put forward on the agenda in the region. I have been to conferences in Turkey and there the question was raised by the Kurdish delegation as to whether a Kurdish Spring was possible by analogy with the Arab Spring. And the answer was “yes”. Today the Kurdish community, or shall we say the Kurdish communities in the region, I remind you that the Kurds live compactly in Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey, pose the question of the establishment of a Kurdish homeland. And what Erdogan suggests is an attempt to smooth out these problems and solve the Kurdish problem in Turkey, inside Turkey. In particular he offers some democratic reforms. But I will remind you that immediately after his proposals were announced there were Kurds’ demonstrating in Turkey, who demand to deepen and expand the program because this program is not sufficient to solve the Kurdish problem. I think the fight will develop in this direction, the Kurds will demand more rights, the expansion of the program and the government will consider these requirements, or possibly stay with this program. Therefore, the Kurdish problem in Turkey in the foreseeable future, it seems to me, will not be resolved. Also, at the moment the situation has developed in such a way that the Kurds have achieved their rights in the sense of an autonomy in Iraq, there a state within the state has been created, de facto Kurdistan is an independent state. In Syria, after the start of the civil conflict the Kurds gained the right to obtain Syrian citizenship, some rights in the sense of autonomy, and in the areas of Syria that are attacked by armed militants Kurdish self-defense units have been created with the help of the Syrian government. And here is a situation where only in Turkey the Kurds now feel themselves to be a second-rate element of the population.

- How many Kurds are present in the Turkish government?

- There are about 3-5% of Kurds in the governmental departments.

- In your opinion, to what other concessions could go the Turkish government agree to without damage to itself?

- If the proposals are indeed realized, the creation of Kurdish political parties, increasing their representation in the parliament, this is a long-standing issue. Granting broader political and civil rights to the Kurdish population. But again, it's quite a hypothetical question as to what extent Erdogan can take these steps, because the leadership around Erdogan are moderate Islamists, and in general the Islamization of Turkey is an on-going process, and this process presupposes that Turkey is an Islamic state, where the Sunni branch of Islam is dominant, and granting rights to minorities, including the Kurds, will come up against resistance from the portion of the population that professes this ideology.

- The economic crisis is developing in the U.S. Is there a chance that Syria will be left alone for some time due to this?

- It can be left alone for some time, because of the economic crisis and internal political struggle in the U.S. But it will be done only for some time, because the goal of the U.S. and the West, Israel, a part of the Israeli leadership, is to overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad. And the goal remains. The fact that an agreement on the chemical weapon was reached would be a positive step, if it were made. But it won’t solve the problem of the Syrian crisis. It is only one of its elements. The West and the U.S. don’t want a political settlement of the Syrian crisis. For them, the most important thing is overthrowing Bashar Assad. The interests of the West, the U.S., Israel, and the Persian Gulf states coincide here.

The other moment is that the Military Industrial Commission of the U.S. is also interested in stirring up the military situation over Syria. When the U.S. prepared for a strike on Syria, the live stock of companies producing cruise missiles rose and the holders of the stock got serious revenues. The fact is important.

- Do you think the overthrow of Assad is a settled issue and all we can do is wait? Does he have a chance to resist?

- The development of the situation in the Middle East means that the situation works for Assad. Firstly, the successes of the Syrian army in the struggle against the armed militants are obvious; moreover, there are the supplies of arms from Russia and Iran, and the Russian and Iranian authorities state that they will continue doing it; and finally, the situation in the region. The toppling of President Morsi in Egypt is a victory for Assad. Today the Egyptian leadership has rejected the former policy of Morsi, i.e. the support for the radical armed opposition in Syria. All borders through which Egyptian militants come to Syria are closed. The headquarters of the National Coalition of the Syrian opposition was withdrawn from Cairo; now it is situated in Doha. Moreover, the militants who fought for the armed opposition in Syria are subjected to persecution in Egypt because they participated in demonstrations and armed clashes against the military in Egypt, who stood against Morsi. Today Egypt is in a step to reconstruct diplomatic relations with Syria. This is a real success. Egypt is excluded from the group of states which want to overthrow Assad. Egypt is now different, even though it is not an ally of Syria, at least it is a neutral country. This is significant because Egypt is an important Arab state, and a lot depends on its position.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have recognized the new Egyptian government. This is a sign as well, because Saudi Arabia and the UAE promised financial support to the new Egyptian authorities. It is also a new element in the puzzle of the political situation in the Middle East.

At the moment, Assad’s positions are being improved. I don’t think the government of Assad will be overthrown in the near future. In the U.S. we can see a weakening of Obama’s positions; the European position on the Syrian opposition is ambiguous, because there are reports by experts of the UK special services, which say that hundreds of Muslim British citizens are fighting for the radical Syrian opposition. In case of their return to the UK, it would be a big threat. It's the same in France. The attitude of European society and political circles toward developments in Syria is changing.

-       How do you think the situation in Syria can influence Russia?

-       According to various data, up to two thousand Russian citizens from the North Caucasian republics, from Muslim regions of Russia are fighting for the armed opposition in Syria. There was information that financial support in the Muslim regions of Russia is being collected to help the Syrian opposition. Spreading Jihadist ideology is connected with a difficult socio-economic situation. A lot of young people cannot find their place in life – unemployment, corruption. The Islamist ideology operates in the Arab Muslim world and in Russia under the motto “Establishing an Islamist State will Solve All Problems.”

After the dissolution of the USSR, borders were opened for young Russian Muslims who went to Arab Muslim universities where they studied Koran and Shariah. It was positive, but on the other hadn, they were influenced by the Jihadist ideology of establishing the world caliphate, Wahabi ideology. And when they returned, some of them spread the ideology in sermons, at school, if they became teachers in madrasahs. At the moment some steps are taken against it, but earlier they were not taken and it had bad consequences.

-       Is the ideology popular in Muslim republics of the former USSR?

-       In Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan the expression of extremism is strictly punished. I took part in conferences where i communicate with my Kazakh colleagues. In the 1990s there were incidents in the country, but today they are rare. When a person goes to a foreign Muslim university, he is registered. When he comes back, he is interviewed and cannot provide his ideological activity freely. We have no such practice. There are democracy and democratic norms, but security should be provided. The measures which are implemented in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are effective. The same should be done in Russia.